First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)Kristi Noem

ResolvedOutcome: NoVol$5KResolvedas of

Odds now

This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .

YES0¢
NO100¢

24has of

What moved the odds?

12 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .

NOAxios98%match63¢+59%
After record-setting turnover in his first term, Trump has grown averse to firing his top officials this time around. Those on the outs are more likely to be sidelined than canned.
NOAcyn99%match63¢+59%
Trump: I think Kristi Noem is doing a very good job
NOAcyn99%match63¢+59%
Reporter: Is Kristi Noem going to step down? Trump: No
YESLeading Report99%match37¢-100%
BREAKING: 64% chance Kristi Noem leaves the Trump admin before 2027.
YESBreaking91199%match37¢-100%
@Polymarket odds: Who will be the FIRST to leave the Trump Cabinet?Kristi Noem surges to 43.0% amid controversy Pam Bondi 16.8% None before 2027: 9.2% Lori Chavez-DeRemer 6.6%
YESLeading Report99%match37¢-100%
BREAKING: 64% chance Kristi Noem leaves the Trump admin before 2027.
NOCGTN Europe99%match61¢+64%
White House: Trump still has confidence and trust in Kristi Noem
YESPolymarket99%match39¢-100%
BREAKING: Kristi Noem's odds of being the 1st to leave the Trump Cabinet have doubled today. 30% chance.
YESPolymarket99%match39¢-100%
NEW POLYMARKET: Kristi Noem's odds of being the 1st to leave the Trump Cabinet have doubled today. 30% chance.
YESAxios98%match39¢-100%
NEW: Kristi Noem is locked in a bitter feud with border czar Tom Homan. Backers of Noem, who has been the subject of reports that she’s on her way out of the administration, blame the whisper campaign on Homan’s supporters
YESPOLITICO98%match39¢-100%
The White House says Kristi Noem isn’t going anywhere, but that hasn’t stopped people from floating potential replacements. Former Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin are among names being discussed inside the Trump administration.
YESLeading Report98%match1¢-100%
BREAKING: President Trump is considering replacing DHS Sec. Kristi Noem with Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, per The Bulwark.

Where does the news lean?

10YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h

Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.

How did this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration. If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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