First out of Trump Cabinet by end of 2026? (Duplicate)
Open39as of
This hub tracks 39 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Fed's Stephen Miran resigns from White House post
After record-setting turnover in his first term, Trump has grown averse to firing his top officials this time around. Those on the outs are more likely to be sidelined than canned.
Rubio preparing for another new job
Trump: I think Kristi Noem is doing a very good job
Reporter: Is Kristi Noem going to step down? Trump: No
BREAKING: 64% chance Kristi Noem leaves the Trump admin before 2027.
@Polymarket odds: Who will be the FIRST to leave the Trump Cabinet?Kristi Noem surges to 43.0% amid controversy
Pam Bondi 16.8%
None before 2027: 9.2%
Lori Chavez-DeRemer 6.6%
BREAKING: 64% chance Kristi Noem leaves the Trump admin before 2027.
White House: Trump still has confidence and trust in Kristi Noem
[Replying to @CollinRugg] @CollinRugg 1% chance he gains another job. > JUST IN: President Trump has appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to yet another job. “I am appointing Miami native Secretary of State Marco Rubio to Chair the efforts of coordinating and advancing this exciting opportunity to convene the World.”
President Trump has appointed Secretary of State Marco Rubio to another job.
One year of President Trump and Secretary Hegseth:
BREAKING: It’s looking like Pam Bondi may be next to the leave the Trump Cabinet according to Polymarket. [Quoting @Polymarket]
> BREAKING: It’s looking like Pam Bondi may be next to the leave the Trump Cabinet.
[Replying to @Polymarket] Follow live: > BREAKING: It’s looking like Pam Bondi may be next to the leave the Trump Cabinet.
BREAKING: It’s looking like Pam Bondi may be next to the leave the Trump Cabinet.
BREAKING: Kristi Noem's odds of being the 1st to leave the Trump Cabinet have doubled today. 30% chance.
NEW POLYMARKET: Kristi Noem's odds of being the 1st to leave the Trump Cabinet have doubled today. 30% chance.
Rubio trying to distance himself from other Trump actions
Trump: I think Pete Hegseth should be in that working group. He knows the territory very well. He’s been fantastic at what he is doing.
Trump: Hegseth should also be in working group
BREAKING: Trump admin has located more than 129,000 ‘unaccompanied children’ Biden admin lost, per Kristi Noem.
President Trump is standing by Susie Wiles despite a series of candid interviews that criticized administration officials.
Reporter: Will Susie Wiles remain your chief of staff? Trump: Yeah. She’s doing a great job.
BREAKING: Former VP Mike Pence demands the immediate resignation of HHS Sec. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Either Kristi Noem just lied, or she has no idea what her own Department is doing. Both are fireable offenses.
BREAKING: Kristi Noem just RAN OUT of our hearing early, without notice. Never has there been a Cabinet Secretary so terrified of accountability. She needs to go.
NEW: Kristi Noem is locked in a bitter feud with border czar Tom Homan. Backers of Noem, who has been the subject of reports that she’s on her way out of the administration, blame the whisper campaign on Homan’s supporters
The White House says Kristi Noem isn’t going anywhere, but that hasn’t stopped people from floating potential replacements. Former Utah Rep. Jason Chaffetz and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin are among names being discussed inside the Trump administration.
RFK Jr. is latest Trump official to face Democratic impeachment effort
Trump: So, Susie Trump, do you know Susie Trump? Sometimes referred to as Susie Wiles. Susie Trump. She is the great chief of staff--they don't use the word chief of staff anymore because the Indians got extremely upset
What is this event about?
This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.
If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.