When will the Danube River return to normal levels?Does not return by November 1, 2026
Open$44Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 77% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES77¢
NO23¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Water levels on the Danube are expected to be even lower in the coming days than they were in August. Thanks to the construction work at Paks ordered by the government and the bed sill completed within a few weeks, there is currently no threat of a shutdown at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant.
The water level of the Danube River in Budapest has dropped to 0 centimeters.
As the Danube River dries up due to a heatwave, Nazi shipwrecks keep appearing – why are they there? There is no other record of the water level dropping as low as it did in the summer of 2026, with the hulls completely exposed. The shipwrecks are narrowing shipping lanes for commercial vessels, creating an economic bottleneck.
Where does the news lean?
4YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
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See all outcomes for When will the Danube River return to normal levels? — the full event, with combined odds and signal timeline.