When will the Danube River return to normal levels?
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Market pricing makes Does not return by November 1, 2026 the favorite at 90% across 5 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Water levels on the Danube are expected to be even lower in the coming days than they were in August. Thanks to the construction work at Paks ordered by the government and the bed sill completed within a few weeks, there is currently no threat of a shutdown at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant.
Water levels on the Danube are expected to be even lower in the coming days than they were in August. Thanks to the construction work at Paks ordered by the government and the bed sill completed within a few weeks, there is currently no threat of a shutdown at the Paks Nuclear Power Plant.
The water level of the Danube River in Budapest has dropped to 0 centimeters.
The water level of the Danube River in Budapest has dropped to 0 centimeters.
As the Danube River dries up due to a heatwave, Nazi shipwrecks keep appearing – why are they there? There is no other record of the water level dropping as low as it did in the summer of 2026, with the hulls completely exposed. The shipwrecks are narrowing shipping lanes for commercial vessels, creating an economic bottleneck.
As the Danube River dries up due to a heatwave, Nazi shipwrecks keep appearing – why are they there? There is no other record of the water level dropping as low as it did in the summer of 2026, with the hulls completely exposed. The shipwrecks are narrowing shipping lanes for commercial vessels, creating an economic bottleneck.
The Danube River's water level in Budapest has hit a new low: one centimeter.
The Danube River's water level in Budapest has hit a new low: one centimeter.
What is this event about?
This market resolves based on when the water level at the Budapest gauge (station HU442027) first reaches or exceeds 93 centimeters, as reported by the International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River (ICPDR) via DanubeHIS. A reading of 93 centimeters or higher is the Danube Commission's official Low Water Level (LDC) threshold for Budapest, the minimum acceptable navigation level, and defines "normal levels" for this market.
"Does not return by November 1, 2026" resolves "Yes" if no reading at or above 93 centimeters is recorded at the Budapest gauge at any time on or before October 31, 2026 11:59 PM UTC. Readings after this cutoff are not considered, and any return to normal levels occurring on or after November 1, 2026 does not affect resolution.
The resolution is triggered by the first reading at or above 93 centimeters recorded on or after the market's start, representing a rise back to the threshold. A single reading at or above 93 centimeters is sufficient to trigger resolution; transient spikes count, and the water level does not need to be sustained at or above 93 centimeters for any period.
The bracket containing the timestamp of the first reading at or above 93 centimeters resolves "Yes"; all other brackets resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be DanubeHIS (https://www.danubehis.org/results/HU442027_HYDRO). If DanubeHIS is unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.