Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026?
Open$8Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 20% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES20¢
NO80¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Chuck Edwards' abrupt exit leaves Republicans scrambling
Live: Chuck Edwards says he will end reelection bid after censure recommendation
Rep. Chuck Edwards Won't Seek Re-Election After Sexual-Harassment Findings -- WSJ
OVERNIGHT: Rep. Chuck Edwards, R-NC, drops re-election bid after Ethic Committee urges he be censured for sexually harassing two young female staffers • • @nbcnews
Embattled Republican Rep. Chuck Edwards posts overnight that he is ending his reelection bid. He said he will remain in Congress through the end of his current term
Rep. Chuck Edwards (R-NC) won’t seek reelection
Rep. Chuck Edwards withdraws from reelection campaign in North Carolina
Chuck Edwards to retire after sexual-harassment scandal!
Where does the news lean?
25YES5NO25neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
Past moves on this market
Material odds moves (≥8 points within an hour of a matched news signal), newest first — each links to a dated brief on what moved the price.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Chuck Edwards' departure as a member of the United States House of Representatives is officially announced by December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise it will resolve to "No".
The departure will be considered to be announced when Chuck Edwards, the United States House of Representatives, or their authorized representatives publicly and definitively announce that Chuck Edwards has ceased or will cease to hold the position of US Representative from North Carolina's 11th Congressional District. Such an announcement will qualify regardless of when the specified person formally leaves the position. Announcements of the specified person’s resignation, removal, or departure through other means all qualify.
The following do not qualify as public and definitive announcements: statements that the specified person is considering or open to departing; conditional statements that the specified person will depart only if specified conditions are met; the announcement of an offer of resignation that requires acceptance and remains pending or has been refused; media reports that the specified person plans to depart; statements made in sarcasm or jest; and statements by persons other than the specified person, the relevant authority governing the specified position, or their respective authorized representatives.
Only announcements which are framed as announcing a departure intended to be effective within 18 months of the date of the announcement will qualify (e.g., neither “I will leave office in 2 years,” nor “I will not be in office forever,” would qualify).
Announcements of temporary leaves of absence, dated suspensions, indefinite suspensions, administrative leaves, or other temporary changes to the specified person’s duties in the specified position do not qualify.
If the specified person holds the specified position on a predefined term with a scheduled end date, only announcements that they will depart the position prior to the scheduled end of their term qualify.
If the specified person formally ceases to hold the specified position before the specified date without a qualifying announcement, the market will resolve to "Yes" if major news agencies of record confirm the departure by the specified date.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chuck Edwards and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.