Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026? Odds jumped to 82% on Aug 5, 2026
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Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026? On , the market’s odds jumped from 69.5¢ to 81.5¢ (+12 pts) within an hour of a news signal, one of a 4-source news cluster, from axios.com.
How did the odds move?
Yes-side prices at the moment the news was matched and at the stamped impact windows after it. Windows the tracker could not measure inside its honesty band are omitted, never estimated.
Later moves the same day
This is the market’s single brief for Aug 5, 2026; further measured moves that day are folded in here as they are stamped.
- 69.5¢ → 81.5¢+12 ptsafter a signal from CBS Reporter
- 70¢ → 81.5¢+11.5 ptsafter a signal from Newswire
- 71¢ → 81.5¢+10.5 ptsafter a signal from axios
- 72¢ → 81.5¢+9.5 ptsafter a signal from livesquawk
- 81.5¢ → 71.5¢-10 ptsafter a signal from abcnews.com
- 81.5¢ → 71.5¢-10 ptsafter a signal from MS NOW Reporter
- 81.5¢ → 71.5¢-10 ptsafter a signal from CBS Reporter
- 81.5¢ → 71.5¢-10 ptsafter a signal from WSJ Reporter
- 81.5¢ → 69.5¢-12 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
- 81.5¢ → 69¢-12.5 ptsafter a signal from nypost.com
- 81.5¢ → 66¢-15.5 ptsafter a signal from TheHill Reporter
- 81.5¢ → 66¢-15.5 ptsafter a signal from Politico Reporter
What moved the odds?
Part of a 4-source news cluster, first seen . The triggering signal is listed first.
Where does this market stand now?
The market prices a 20% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
$8K
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Chuck Edwards out as US Rep before December 31, 2026? — live odds, order flow, and the full signal timeline.