China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
Open$3.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
6 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
NOBloomberg98%match83¢+12%
China reduced military flights into a sensitive area near Taiwan last month, an indication Beijing is tweaking its training focus
YESReuters99%match14¢-50%
Taiwan President Lai Ching-te said the island is determined to defend its sovereignty and boost its defense, after China fired rockets towards the island as part of military drills
YESThe Wall Street Journal99%match16¢-56%
What we learned after China encircled Taiwan and carried out large-scale drills this week
YESAxios98%match15¢-53%
China's military holds live drills around Taiwan after Trump arms sale announcement
YESReuters99%match15¢-53%
China launches war games around Taiwan as island vows to defend democracy
YESThe Spectator Index98%match14¢-50%
BREAKING: Taiwan places forces on high alert amid China military exercises
Where does the news lean?
9YES3NO4neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Taiwan (Republic of China) between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Taiwanese military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however Taiwan's Coast Guard Administration (CGA) is not.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.