Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027?
Open$149Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES8¢
NO92¢
as of
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Zelensky: Ukraine will not seek alternatives outside of NATO.
Live: Ukraine will never join NATO, says ambassador to UK
Live: Zelensky renews calls for Ukraine to join Nato
NATO “A strong Ukraine today and a strong Ukraine in the future – this is how we can stop Russian aggression. War does not wait for us. The time to act is now.” – NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized in a joint press statement following the results of the Bucharest Nine (B9) and Northern Allies Summit, co-hosted by Romanian President Nicuşor Dan and Polish President Karol Nawrocki in Bucharest on May 13, 2026. (ENG below) “Ukraine is supported by many friends. Through the PURL initiative, which provides urgently needed American firepower to Ukraine. And through other means. We need to mobilize all resources and continue to provide the support that Ukraine needs. Because Ukraine’s security is our security. Our continued strong support for Ukraine will also be a priority at the Ankara Summit,” NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte emphasized. The Secretary General said that the gathering of NATO allies, from the Black Sea to the Arctic, “demonstrates our unity and determination to stand together and defend ourselves against any threat from any direction. The Bucharest Nine is firmly anchored in NATO and the transatlantic relationship. Russia remains […] the most significant and immediate threat to NATO. And it continues its relentless war of aggression against Ukraine. We cannot let our guard down.” The Armed Forces of Ukraine are grateful for #NATO support and help A strong Ukraine today, and a strong Ukraine for the future, is how Russian aggression can be stopped. The war isn't waiting for us. The time for action is now," emphasized NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the joint press statement at the Summit of the Bucharest Nine (B9) and Nordic Allies, co-chaired by President of Romania Nicușor Dan and President of Poland Karol Nawrocki in Bucharest on May 13, 2026. (UKR above) "Ukraine is backed by many, many friends. Through the PURL initiative, which is getting urgently needed American firepower to Ukraine. And through other ways. We need to dig deep, and continue to provide the support Ukraine needs. Because Ukraine's security is our security. Our continued strong support for Ukraine will also be a priority at the Ankara Summit," stressed NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The Secretary General stated that today's meeting of strong and committed NATO Allies, from the Black Sea, to the Baltic, to the Arctic, "demonstrates our unity and determination. To stand together. And to defend against any threat, from any direction. The B9 is firmly anchored in NATO and the transatlantic relationship. Russia remains [...] the most significant and direct threat to NATO. And it continues its ruthless war of aggression against Ukraine. We cannot let down our guard." #NATOUA #NATOinUkraine #WeAreNATO Text and photo: NATO
YESJennifer Griffin98%match60¢-87%
Our developing story is here: Ukraine offers to drop Nato membership demands
YESCGTN Europe98%match57¢-86%
Ukraine has relinquished its ambition of joining the NATO military alliance in exchange for Western security guarantees as a compromise to end the war with Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said ahead of talks with U.S. envoys in Berlin. The move marks a major shift for…
YESFirst Squawk98%match33¢-76%
UKRAINE OFFERS TO DROP NATO MEMBERSHIP DEMANDS
Where does the news lean?
9YES5NO3neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine publicly agrees not to join NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Ukraine not to join NATO will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the Russian Federation.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO for any amount of time will count (e.g. If Ukraine not to join NATO for 10 years this will qualify).
An agreement by Ukraine not to join NATO as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. The September 8, 1995 “Agreed Basic Principles” between Bosnia and Yugoslavia which recognized the borders and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and was later formalized through the Dayton Peace Agreement is an example of a qualifying agreement.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the Ukraine, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming a qualifying agreement has been reached will also count.