0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by..?September 30
ResolvedOutcome: No$11Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
NONews94%match98¢+2%
(Houthi's Yemen TV) Ministry of Transport: The number of ships crossing Bab al-Mandab has increased to 408 after the liberation of the western coastal districts, compared to 393 ships during the period from September 1 to 10.
Urgent | Ministry of Transport and Public Works: 408 commercial vessels crossed the Bab al-Mandab Strait between September 11 and 21. - 196 vessels crossed Bab al-Mandab northbound and 212 vessels southbound over 10 days. - More than 40 commercial vessels of various types cross the Bab al-Mandab Strait daily. - The number of vessels crossing Bab al-Mandab has increased to 408 after the liberation of the western coastal districts, compared to 393 vessels between September 1 and 10. - Navigation through Bab al-Mandab is proceeding smoothly and safely for international commercial vessels, with the exception of Saudi vessels. - The continued normal and safe traffic in Bab al-Mandab refutes claims of a halt in navigation or the insecurity of the waterway. #Saba_Agency 𝕏 | ⓕ | ✆ t.me/Saba_Newsye
Sanaa: More than 318 ships passed through Bab al-Mandab Minister of Transport of the Government of Sanaa: From September 10 to 18, more than 318 ships have passed through the Bab al-Mandab Strait safely and securely. During this period, developments in the Red Sea have been followed with close attention. @YjcNewsChannel
Where does the news lean?
0YES5NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 95%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to 0 for any date between market creation and the specified date, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF PortWatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a daily number of transit calls equal to 0, or once complete data has been published for the specified period without such a publication. If complete data for the specified period has not been published within 28 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF PortWatch differs from alternative sources. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying except in the case of data integrity issues.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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