Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? the favorite at 4%, as of .
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Putin plans to seize Donetsk and Luhansk regions, - Deputy Head of the GUR of the Ministry of Defense Vadym Skibitsky "Their plans are as follows and this is what they say: by the end of this year there will be no agreements and no signing of a peace agreement.
Putin wants to achieve the goals he set for himself - these are, first of all, Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Their general staff plans to complete the seizure of Donetsk region by the end of this year," - said Major Skibitsky. #ExclusiveRBKUkraine Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
Putin wants to establish full control over Donbas by fall 2027, - NYT According to the publication, the Kremlin is preparing for a winter offensive. If the Russian army fails to complete the task, negotiations may become more likely. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
Few and fewer Ukrainians are willing to give up Donbas in exchange for security guarantees, - KIIS 60% of Ukrainians consider the transfer of all of Donbas under the control of the Russian Federation in exchange for security guarantees to be categorically unacceptable. 33% of respondents are ready to support such a scenario, another 7% are undecided, according to a KIIS poll. Compared to April, the willingness to make such a concession has decreased: then 36% of respondents supported it, now - 33%. On the other hand, the share of those who are categorically against it has increased from 57% to 60%. Read only the gist from RBC-Ukraine on Google.
We cannot simply talk about withdrawing from Donbas as a matter of compromise. Our withdrawal from Donbas opens up opportunities for the Russian Federation to occupy our most protected territories without losses. Someone says that it takes a year and a half to build new fortifications. But everyone forgets: first of all, it's a year and a half. And even if it's less, any fortifications in the field, and not in urban development, are completely different things. It can never be such a strong defense. The exit opens up space for the Russian Federation for major maneuvers. They can be directed both at Kharkiv and the Dnieper, destroying our cities. And two large cities, which, by the way, generate a large part of our GDP, will be under threat. So many people died there… The morale of our army will definitely deteriorate. There will definitely be a split in society. The army, which certainly will not support such steps, is separate – society is separate. And the division of society is exactly what is the main goal for Putin. In addition, 200 thousand people now live in the territories of Donbas that we are defending. Withdrawing does not mean preserving anything. You withdraw and without any guarantees you can lose everything. And this is a big risk. From an interview with Rai Radio 1 (2/3).
We cannot simply speak about withdrawing from Donbas as a matter of compromise. Our withdrawal from Donbas would open up opportunities for the Russian Federation to occupy our most fortified territories without losses. • • Some people say it would take a year to a year and a half to build new fortifications. But everyone forgets: first and foremost, that is a year and a half. And even if it were less, fortifications in an open field are a completely different matter from those in urban areas. They can never provide equally strong protection. • • A withdrawal would give the Russian Federation room for large-scale maneuver. They could advance either toward Kharkiv or toward Dnipro, destroying our cities. And two major cities would be at risk – cities that, incidentally, generate a significant share of our GDP. • • So many people have died there… The morale of our army would certainly decline. There would undoubtedly be a rift in society. The army – which would surely not support such steps – on one side, and society on the other. And division within society is precisely what Putin is aiming for. • • Moreover, there are currently 200,000 people living in the territories of Donbas that we are defending. Withdrawal does not mean preserving anything. You leave, and without any guarantees, you risk losing everything. And that is a major risk. • • From an interview with Rai Radio 1 (2/3).
The threat to other cities of Ukraine in the event of withdrawal from Donbas will only increase - experts In the event of a withdrawal from Donbas, the threat will increase not only for Ukrainian cities, but also for strategically important nodes, said political expert, candidate of philosophical sciences Oleksandra Reshmedilova. "Well, that's what we're talking about, that we'll withdraw from these fortifications directly. The threat will increase for many, not only for cities with a population of millions, and for strategically important hubs. And the atrocities that we saw in Irpin will not just simply scale up," she said at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Thursday. ...
Tax pressure on Ukrainians will increase many times over if an order to withdraw from Donbas is signed - experts If an order to withdraw from Donbas is signed, the tax pressure on every Ukrainian will increase many times over, said Serhiy Yagodzinsky, vice-rector of the European University, political expert. "The question arises, who will finance this retreat? I will give you the answer. To those people who say today, well, let's give it. Get ready for the fact that after the President of Ukraine signs the order to the troops to retreat, we are not talking about alienating the territory... get ready for the fact that the tax pressure on every Ukrainian will increase many times. We will pay not 5 percent of the military fee, but 25. We will pay VAT not 20 percent, but 30," he said at a press conference at the Interfax-Ukraine agency on Thursday. ...
Zelensky: Our forces will remain in the parts of Donbas that we control and will not leave them before reaching a comprehensive agreement
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede de facto control of all major cities under their control in the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, major cities under Ukrainian control include the following: Kramatorsk, Sloviansk, Kostiantynivka, Druzhkivka, and Pokrovsk.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of the listed cities will qualify regardless of if Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
A Ukrainian agreement to cede de facto military control, will qualify regardless of the group/entity which replaces them.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify. If Russia captures these cities through military action it will not qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.