Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027?

OpenOutcomes1as of

Market pricing makes Will Trump end Department of Education before 2027? the favorite at 4%, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

NOPolitico Reporter99%match91¢+5%
DEMISE OF THE DOGE: Education Department plans to hire hundreds, via @Becca_Carballo
NOSemafor Reporter99%match95¢+1%
Sen. Kaine is going to broadcast a closed door meeting with Trump admin on Education Department tomorrow
YESReuters98%match11¢-64%
Trump seeks to limit legal options for fired federal workers
YESRapid Response 4798%match11¢-64%
NEW: You can now enroll your eligible child in @TrumpAccounts by making an election on the new IRS Form 4547 at
NOBreaking91199%match89¢+8%
TRUMP: "Today, I'm also pleased to announce that the Department of Education is officially issuing its new guidance to protect the right to prayer in our public schools. That's a big deal!"
YESPOLITICO99%match14¢-71%
Education Department breakup a sticking point in spending talks
YESRapid Response 4799%match14¢-71%
.@EDSecMcMahon on the Trump Administration's plan to return education to the states: "@POTUS wants to take the bureaucracy out of education... the funds are going to continue to flow... just as they did before there was a Department of Education."
YESThe White House99%match16¢-75%
.@EDSecMcMahon: @POTUS believes, as do I, that the best education is that closest to the student, not from bureaucracy in Washington, D.C. — and so what we want to do is return education to where it was before there was a Department of Education.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Department of Education ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal educational programs managed by the department, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the US Department of Education is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Department of Education it will count as a "Yes" resolution. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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