Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? the favorite at 13%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Will the US invade Iran before 2027? • Polymarket sees this at a 32 percent chance of occurring, despite a ceasefire being in place. • A full invasion is unlikely although if peace negotiations continue to stall limited ground incursions could be a possibility. • What do you think?
Odds on the U.S invading Iran before 2027 has shot up to almost 60%. • • People don’t seem to have faith in Trump ending it anytime soon.
Iran warns invasion of its islands would cause it to 'abandon all restraint'
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.