Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
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Market pricing makes Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? the favorite at 8%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Someone created a new wallet and spent $57.5K betting that the U.S. will invade Cuba in 2026, pushing the odds above 80% for a short time. • • This person is now down $31K. • •
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.