Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
Open$3.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 8% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES8¢
NO93¢
as of
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Someone created a new wallet and spent $57.5K betting that the U.S. will invade Cuba in 2026, pushing the odds above 80% for a short time. • • This person is now down $31K. • •
Where does the news lean?
0YES1NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.