When will the US confirm that aliens exist?
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Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 4% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Obama: "One of the things you learn as president is government is terrible at keeping secrets. This idea of conspiracy theories -- if there were aliens or spaceships under the control of the US government that we knew about, seen, photographed, I promise you some guy guarding the installation would have taken a selfie with one of the aliens."
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.