Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? the favorite at 7%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The Iranian Regime is crumbling.
The Iranian Regime is crumbling.
#BREAKING NBC, citing two sources familiar with the matter: US intelligence indicates the Iranian regime is unified and shows no signs of collapse.
Reuters: The Islamic Republic of Iran is not in danger of collapse @Defapress_ir
Political analyst: The Iranian regime has become more cohesive after experiencing "fragmentation" and lacking the luxury of options. #Iran #IranWar #HereIsTheKingdom
PM in response to my question: Can't guarantee that the Iranian regime will fall
Told @CBSNews - As long as the Iranian regime remains in power, it will not capitulate to pressure. Its ideological foundations make compromise extremely unlikely. • • @mattgu •
A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” said one of the sources. •
Iran’s crumbling regime fortifies the capital amid fears of revolution.
A IRGC Basij member filmed himself leaving his post, saying he believes the Islamic regime is over. • • Standing inside what he says is a Basij barracks that used to be a school, he explains that everyone there has already left. • • “Everyone is gone or leaving. I’m going home too,” he says. “It seems like the regime is finished and we should surrender. I just hope the people don’t take revenge on us.”
The Iranian Regime Doubles Down
Israeli ministers: It could take a year for the Iranian regime to fall (Kan News)
#Netanyahu urges Iranians to "seize the opportunity" to overthrow the regime #Sky_Online %D9%87%D9%88-%D9%8A%D8%AD%D8%AB-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%8A%D8%B1%D8%A7%D9%86%D9%8A %D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%BA%D8%AA%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%85-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%81%D8%B1%D8%B5%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B2%D8%A7%D8%AD%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%86%D8%B8%D8%A7%D9%85
Estimates in Israel: It may take about a year for the ayatollah regime to fall.
In Israel, it is estimated that it may take about a year for the ayatollah regime to fall.
Government ministers after security briefing: "It may take about a year for the Iranian regime to fall" | @SuleimanMas1's post #NewsNowEdition with @talberman
RT @visegrad24: BREAKING: Anti-regime protesters tore down a statue of Khamenei in Galleh Dar, Fars province, Iran.
BREAKING: Anti-regime protesters tore down a statue of Khamenei in Galleh Dar, Fars province, Iran.
[Replying to @unusual_whales] @unusual_whales 56% chance the regime falls this year. >
Defiant Iranian FM Says Regime Change Will Be 'Mission Impossible'
BREAKING: The Iranian Regime is projected to fall this year. 54% chance.
BREAKING: The Iranian regime is on the brink of collapse.
The Iranian regime will fall.
BREAKING: The odds of the Iranian Regime falling this year have hit record highs. 31% chance.
As the Islamic Regime in Iran loses control its first city and protesters flood the streets in more than 100 cities, the likelihood of the Islamic regime falling this year dramatically shoots up. It has gone from just 7% to more than 30% in just a few weeks.
As the Islamic Regime in Iran loses control its first city and protesters flood the streets in more than 100 cities, the likelihood of the Islamic regime falling this year dramatically shoots up. It has gone from just 7% to more than 30% in just a few weeks. [Quoting @Polymarket]
> BREAKING: The odds of the Iranian Regime falling this year have hit record highs. 31% chance.
[Replying to @Polymarket] Live odds: > BREAKING: The odds of the Iranian Regime falling this year have hit record highs. 31% chance.
[Replying to @Polymarket] BREAKING: The odds of the Iranian Regime falling this year have hit record highs. 31% chance. >
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.