Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Open$25.3Mas of
Odds now
The market prices a 7% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES7¢
NO94¢
as of
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
There is no evidence the Iranian regime is crumbling
#BREAKING NBC, citing two sources familiar with the matter: US intelligence indicates the Iranian regime is unified and shows no signs of collapse.
Reuters: The Islamic Republic of Iran is not in danger of collapse @Defapress_ir
Political analyst: The Iranian regime has become more cohesive after experiencing "fragmentation" and lacking the luxury of options. #Iran #IranWar #HereIsTheKingdom
PM in response to my question: Can't guarantee that the Iranian regime will fall
Bombing won’t overthrow ruling clerics, Iran dissidents say
Told @CBSNews - As long as the Iranian regime remains in power, it will not capitulate to pressure. Its ideological foundations make compromise extremely unlikely. • • @mattgu •
A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public,” said one of the sources. •
YESosint61398%match34¢-79%
A IRGC Basij member filmed himself leaving his post, saying he believes the Islamic regime is over. • • Standing inside what he says is a Basij barracks that used to be a school, he explains that everyone there has already left. • • “Everyone is gone or leaving. I’m going home too,” he says. “It seems like the regime is finished and we should surrender. I just hope the people don’t take revenge on us.”
NOKan98%match67¢+39%
Government ministers after security briefing: "It may take about a year for the Iranian regime to fall" | @SuleimanMas1's post #NewsNowEdition with @talberman
YESVisegrád 2499%match31¢-77%
As the Islamic Regime in Iran loses control its first city and protesters flood the streets in more than 100 cities, the likelihood of the Islamic regime falling this year dramatically shoots up. It has gone from just 7% to more than 30% in just a few weeks.
YESVisegrád 2499%match31¢-77%
As the Islamic Regime in Iran loses control its first city and protesters flood the streets in more than 100 cities, the likelihood of the Islamic regime falling this year dramatically shoots up. It has gone from just 7% to more than 30% in just a few weeks. [Quoting @Polymarket]
> BREAKING: The odds of the Iranian Regime falling this year have hit record highs. 31% chance.
YESPolymarket98%match32¢-78%
[Replying to @Polymarket] Live odds: > BREAKING: The odds of the Iranian Regime falling this year have hit record highs. 31% chance.
YESPolymarket99%match32¢-78%
[Replying to @Polymarket] BREAKING: The odds of the Iranian Regime falling this year have hit record highs. 31% chance. >
YESPolymarket99%match28¢-75%
JUST IN: The odds of the Iranian Regime falling have tripled since the new year.
Where does the news lean?
21YES14NO5neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.