Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
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This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Ynet reported that, based on assessments presented at the Mead Conference held in Washington, the Islamic Republic has been severely weakened, but its collapse is not imminent and may take one to three years.
According to these assessments, about 80 percent of Iranians oppose the government.
The Wall Street Journal wrote in a note that the views of US President Donald Trump's administration officials on the viability of the Islamic Republic are changing, and the possibility of the collapse of the Iranian government has once again been raised in Washington. US Treasury Secretary Scott Besant said on Monday that the collapse of the Islamic Republic could occur "within weeks or months." The Wall Street Journal wrote that the timing or occurrence of such a development cannot be predicted, but the shrinking economy, the collapse of the currency, citizen dissatisfaction and the weakening of the military have increased pressure on the Islamic Republic. The newspaper also referred to the statements of the President of the Islamic Republic, Masoud Pezzekian, about the dire state of the economy and the reaction of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Republic, Mojtaba Khamenei, to his words. According to the Wall Street Journal, the blockade of Iranian ports has created a severe fuel shortage and has faced the government with the challenge of increasing gasoline prices. The newspaper wrote that given the history of protests following the increase in gasoline prices, the current situation could pave the way for new protests.
Qalibaf: The world has realized that the revolution and the Islamic Republic are here to stay, and thanks to the support of our people, there is no dead end and no defeat.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran’s current ruling regime is overthrown, collapsed, or otherwise ceases to govern by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This requires a broad consensus of reporting indicating that core structures of the Islamic Republic (e.g. the office of the Supreme Leader, the Guardian Council, IRGC control under clerical authority) have been dissolved, incapacitated, or replaced by a fundamentally different governing system or otherwise lost de facto power over a majority of the population of Iran. This could occur via revolution, civil war, military coup, or voluntary abdication, but only qualifies if the Islamic Republic no longer exercises sovereign power.
Routine political events such as elections, reforms, or leadership succession do not qualify. Internal coups or power shifts that preserve the Islamic Republic’s core structures also do not qualify. Only a clear break in continuity—such as a new provisional government, revolutionary council, or constitution replacing the Islamic Republic will qualify.
Partial loss of territory or challenges from rebel or exile groups will not qualify unless the Islamic Republic no longer administers the majority of the Iranian population within Iran.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.