Will Nigel Farage up his vote share in Clacton?
Resolved1as of
This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Senior Reform sources are pointing out that they managed to increase the number of votes in the Clacton by-election for Nigel Farage by 1,000 compared with the 2024 general election when there was a very slim chance of him losing. • One says there was “no jeopardy” once the main parties boycotted the by-election, which would normally make it harder to get the vote out. • He tells me: “If we had got fewer votes you would have crucified us. But we didn’t and you can’t.” • More coverage from me in Clacton on @GBNEWS.
Live: Farage sees Clacton vote share increase with other major parties absent
UK’s Nigel Farage Regains Parliamentary Seat, Wins Clacton by-Election
‘I’ll support him all the way’: Clacton voters rally to Farage despite scrutiny
Live: An Australian-born candidate has joined a record number of candidates challenging Nigel Farage in the by-election for the United Kingdom seat of Clacton. A tota
Live: Treasury confirms Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton has been accepted
Live: Reeves accepts Farage’s resignation as Clacton MP
What is this event about?
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage receives a greater percentage of valid votes in the next by-election in Clacton than in the 2024 election in Clacton. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Percentages of the valid votes received by Nigel Farage in each election will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes Nigel Farage received by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If Nigel Farage does not contest the next by-election in Clacton, if no by-election happens by June 30, 2027, or if the results of the by-election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).