María Corina Machado enters Venezuela

OpenOutcomes12as of

Market pricing makes December 31 the favorite at 27% across 12 tracked outcomes, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

11 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

July 31afp.com94%match99¢+1%
Venezuela transition talks set to kick off without Machado
María Corina reiterates her invitation to Venezuelans in Spain for a reunion this Saturday, April 18th, at Puerta del Sol, Madrid. We are going to prepare for our return home and we are going to meet with our president @EdmundoGU, said @MariaCorinaYA
April 30miamiherald.com98%match6¢-100%
Opposition says Machado to return to Venezuela, coordinating with U.S.
BREAKING NEWS | Venezuelan leader @MariaCorinaYA confirmed the date of her trip to Madrid, Spain: April 18 at 6:00 PM
March 31First Squawk98%match27¢-100%
VENEZUELA MACHADO: RATIFIES SHE WILL RETURN TO VENEZUELA
March 31Reuters98%match74¢+35%
Machado ally is kidnapped in Venezuela hours after prison release, son says
January 9Polymarket99%match100¢
BREAKING: María Corina Machado projected to return to Venezuela soon. 62% chance.
January 31The Economist99%match84¢+19%
María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s leading opposition figure, has proved remarkably resilient and canny. But her biggest challenges lie ahead
March 31The Economist99%match45¢-100%
María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s leading opposition figure, has proved remarkably resilient and canny. But her biggest challenges lie ahead
January 9The Economist99%match99¢+1%
María Corina Machado, Venezuela’s leading opposition figure, has proved remarkably resilient and canny. But her biggest challenges lie ahead
January 31Polymarket99%match55¢+82%
BREAKING: Venezuelan opposition leader, María Corina Machado, no longer likely to return to Venezuela this month — as the U.S. refuses to endorse her leadership.

What is this event about?

If María Corina Machado visits Venezuela between market creation and Janaury 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as María Corina Machado physically entering the terrestrial territory of Venezuela. Whether or not María Corina Machado enters Venezuelan airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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