Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?

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Market pricing makes Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027? the favorite at 5%, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

27 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

YESnypost.com94%match6¢-17%
Mamdani plans pressure campaign to push for slew of tax hikes — including one that could squeeze black homeowners
NOnypost.com98%match94¢+1%
Live: Hochul claims she's against tax hikes for wealthy, businesses after pushing through new NYC fee for luxury 2nd homes
NOnypost.com99%match88¢+8%
JPMorgan Chase CEO warns of business 'exodus' from NYC as Mamdani, lefty pols push for tax hikes
NOnypost.com99%match90¢+6%
Mamdani packs City Hall with nearly 80 staffers for pet projects despite crying budget poverty: ‘Useless woke jobs’
NOnypost.com99%match86¢+10%
Mamdani skips Bernie Sanders’ Bronx ‘Tax the Rich’ rally as tensions over lefty legislation mount with Gov. Hochul
NOnypost.com99%match86¢+10%
Major Wall Street powerhouse weighs southern move as Mamdani-led tax threats swirl
NOdbws.io99%match85¢+12%
Wall Street Enlists a Marine Veteran to Take On Mamdani's Tax Hikes -- WSJ
NOnypost.com98%match85¢+12%
Mamdani’s ‘mass engagement’ hires will net cushy six figure salaries totaling nearly $2M to spread socialist’s message
NOfoxnews99%match85¢+12%
POLITICAL POISON: New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani promised to tax the rich — now, he wants to "tax literally everyone" through a $127 billion budget agenda and potential property tax hike, Democratic strategist Melissa DeRosa argues.
NOdbws.io99%match85¢+12%
New York Tech Founders and Investors Mobilize to Fight Proposed Capital-Gains Tax Hike -- WSJ
NOzerohedge99%match85¢+12%
Mamdani's Tax Fantasy Is Already Failing Somewhere Else
NOnypost.com99%match75¢+27%
Desperate Hochul begs wealthy New Yorkers to come back — as Mamdani pressures her to hike their taxes
NOnypost.com99%match86¢+10%
Extreme Mamdani estate tax proposal goes right after New York’s middle class families
NOfirstsquawk99%match86¢+10%
MAMDANI PROPOSES SLASHING NY ESTATE TAX EXEMPTION TO $750K • • Zohran Mamdani wants to cut New York’s estate tax exemption from over $7 million to $750,000 and raise the top rate from 16% to 50% to help close a $5.4 billion city budget gap. • • The plan, part of a memo to state lawmakers, would make New York’s estate tax the lowest exemption in the U.S., far below other states like Oregon ($1 million) or Connecticut ($14 million). • • Experts warn high estate and income taxes could drive wealthy residents away, reducing revenue. The proposal is unlikely to pass this year, as neither the legislature nor Governor Kathy Hochul included it in their budget plans.
NOWalter Bloomberg99%match86¢+10%
MAMDANI PROPOSES SLASHING NY ESTATE TAX EXEMPTION TO $750K • • Zohran Mamdani wants to cut New York’s estate tax exemption from over $7 million to $750,000 and raise the top rate from 16% to 50% to help close a $5.4 billion city budget gap. • • The plan, part of a memo to state lawmakers, would make New York’s estate tax the lowest exemption in the U.S., far below other states like Oregon ($1 million) or Connecticut ($14 million). • • Experts warn high estate and income taxes could drive wealthy residents away, reducing revenue. The proposal is unlikely to pass this year, as neither the legislature nor Governor Kathy Hochul included it in their budget plans.
NOnypost.com99%match86¢+10%
S&P credit rating firm becomes 2nd to sound alarm over NYC finances under Mamdani
YESfoxnews99%match14¢-64%
'NO HESITATION': New York City Mayor Mamdani acknowledges New Yorkers are fleeing the city as he pushes for higher taxes on the wealthy. • • "I don't have a hesitation in asking those who make the most amount of money in this city or the most profits in this city to pay a little bit more so that everyone can actually stay in this city."
YESnypost.com99%match14¢-64%
Mamdani administration inks $1.9B, 3-year contract to house homeless in NYC hotels
NOHedge Fund Manager99%match86¢+10%
.@NYCMayor Mamdani’s strategy appears to be to make NYC an unattractive place to live and to die.
NOpolitico.com99%match85¢+12%
Tax fight will test Mamdani’s influence in Albany against Hochul
YESNews99%match14¢-64%
Raise Taxes on the Rich? These Rich New Yorkers Are All for It.
YESNews99%match14¢-64%
Mamdani doesn’t need to raid NYC’s ‘rainy day’ fund to close $5.4B budget gap: City Council
NOThe Wall Street Journal98%match88¢+8%
From @WSJopinion: California’s proposed billionaire tax is unconstitutional. It’s an uncompensated taking or at least a deprivation of property without due process, contrary to the Fifth and 14th amendments, writes Philip Hamburger.
YESunusual_whales98%match12¢-58%
NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani aims to cancel 5,000 NYPD officer hires and proposes a cut to the department's budget to address the city's deficit, per FOX
NOzerohedge99%match90¢+6%
Zohran Mamdani's Budgetary Buffoonery
NOThe Hill99%match88¢+8%
Republicans see political gold in Mamdani property tax proposal
NOBenzinga99%match87¢+9%
RT @Benzinga: Kevin O'Leary Warns Mamdani's Wealth Tax Proposal Will Push Residents Out: 'Going To Tax People Into Oblivion'

What is this event about?

Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur: 1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election. 2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent). When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe. The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify. Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted. If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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