Will Mamdani pass the 2% Millionaire Tax before 2027?
Open$66Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 5% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES5¢
NO95¢
as of
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Live: Hochul claims she's against tax hikes for wealthy, businesses after pushing through new NYC fee for luxury 2nd homes
Mamdani skips Bernie Sanders’ Bronx ‘Tax the Rich’ rally as tensions over lefty legislation mount with Gov. Hochul
Wall Street Enlists a Marine Veteran to Take On Mamdani's Tax Hikes -- WSJ
MAMDANI PROPOSES SLASHING NY ESTATE TAX EXEMPTION TO $750K • • Zohran Mamdani wants to cut New York’s estate tax exemption from over $7 million to $750,000 and raise the top rate from 16% to 50% to help close a $5.4 billion city budget gap. • • The plan, part of a memo to state lawmakers, would make New York’s estate tax the lowest exemption in the U.S., far below other states like Oregon ($1 million) or Connecticut ($14 million). • • Experts warn high estate and income taxes could drive wealthy residents away, reducing revenue. The proposal is unlikely to pass this year, as neither the legislature nor Governor Kathy Hochul included it in their budget plans.
MAMDANI PROPOSES SLASHING NY ESTATE TAX EXEMPTION TO $750K • • Zohran Mamdani wants to cut New York’s estate tax exemption from over $7 million to $750,000 and raise the top rate from 16% to 50% to help close a $5.4 billion city budget gap. • • The plan, part of a memo to state lawmakers, would make New York’s estate tax the lowest exemption in the U.S., far below other states like Oregon ($1 million) or Connecticut ($14 million). • • Experts warn high estate and income taxes could drive wealthy residents away, reducing revenue. The proposal is unlikely to pass this year, as neither the legislature nor Governor Kathy Hochul included it in their budget plans.
'NO HESITATION': New York City Mayor Mamdani acknowledges New Yorkers are fleeing the city as he pushes for higher taxes on the wealthy. • • "I don't have a hesitation in asking those who make the most amount of money in this city or the most profits in this city to pay a little bit more so that everyone can actually stay in this city."
NOpolitico.com99%match85¢+12%
Tax fight will test Mamdani’s influence in Albany against Hochul
NOThe Hill99%match88¢+8%
Republicans see political gold in Mamdani property tax proposal
Where does the news lean?
6YES21NO11neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
Zohran Mamdani has proposed adding a flat 2% tax on New York City residents earning above $1,000,000 annually. You can read more about that here: https://drive.google.com/file/d/14-aM9DKG337SDMilmfQtLRR-pDwyWSTc/view
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both the following occur:
1. Zohran Mamdani wins the 2025 NYC Mayoral election.
2. A policy is enacted in New York City before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, which would establish a tax increase of 2% or more targeting individuals, households, or family units with an income of at least $1 million (USD or equivalent).
When the proposed tax goes into effect (e.g., if a qualifying tax is enacted for the 2028 fiscal year) will have no bearing on this market's resolution, so long as the policy has actually been enacted within this market's timeframe.
The policy will be considered to have been enacted if a local or state law is passed, or mayoral executive order is issued which will bring the stated tax into effect within the specified timeframe. The introduction, proposal, or announcement of such a policy without legal enactment will not qualify.
Policies which include limited exceptions—such as such as exceptions for specific families, asset classes, etc.—will still qualify as long as a general tax as described is enacted.
If Mamdani is confirmed to have lost the 2025 NYC Mayoral election by a consensus of credible reporting, or if the stated terms are not satisfied within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.