Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?

OpenOutcomes1as of

Market pricing makes Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? the favorite at 13%, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

YESynet.co.il92%match11¢+18%
Iranian senior official: "The answer to Trump is to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty"
YESIran Semi-Official ILNA94%match16¢-19%
Don't think we will always remain a member of the NPT Gharibabadi: The other side should not think that Iran will remain a member of the NPT for life; all options are on the table We are not opposed to discussing withdrawing from the NPT. The war and the destruction of the country's nuclear facilities are a good opportunity to examine this issue. @ilnair
NOiranintlbrk92%match84¢+4%
Gharibabadi: Currently, our situation is like a country that is not a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). He added: No International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors are present in Iran, Tehran no longer submits declarations to the agency, and all access to this institution has been cut off.
YESfarsnews_agency97%match16¢-19%
Gharibabadi: The other side should not think that Iran will remain a member of the NPT forever; all options are on the table. We are not opposed to discussing withdrawing from the NPT. The war and the destruction of the country's nuclear facilities have provided a good opportunity to examine the issue.
YESiranintlbrk92%match16¢-19%
Gharibabadi: Currently, our situation is like a country that is not a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). He added: No inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency are present in Iran, Tehran no longer submits declarations to the Agency, and all access to this institution has been cut off.
YESIran Semi-Official Fars93%match16¢-19%
Gharibabadi: Where is the deterrent in saying that we will withdraw from the NPT and that we are not seeking nuclear weapons? This discussion should be opened within the country as to how long we can implement the NPT commitments. The religious, jurisprudential, and strategic dimensions of the issue should be examined and discussed. @Farsna [in reply to: Gharibabadi: The other side should not think that Iran will remain a member of the NPT for life; all options are on the table We do not oppose the discussion about withdrawing from the NPT. The war and the bombing of the country's nuclear facilities have provided a suitable opportunity to examine the issue. @Farsna]
YESIran Semi-Official SNN97%match16¢-19%
Gharibabadi: Staying in the NPT is no longer a "taboo"; official withdrawal must be carefully examined Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal Affairs: Withdrawing from the NPT is not a black and white or simple issue; rather, it has very serious jurisprudential, religious, strategic, and legal dimensions. Now that the Agency's inspections have completely stopped, it is necessary to analyze what additional deterrent the official withdrawal from the NPT would create? North Korea withdrew from the NPT and manufactured weapons; India, Pakistan, and Israel did not become members at all. If a country withdraws from the NPT but does not manufacture weapons, will its negotiating position and security be strengthened or jeopardized? These are the issues that remove staying in the treaty from being taboo, and the elites should examine it without haste. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv [in reply to: Gharibabadi: According to the explicit text of the NPT, if supreme security interests are jeopardized and there is a 90-day deadline, we can withdraw immediately Deputy Legal Minister of Foreign Affairs: The opposing parties should not think that the Islamic Republic of Iran will remain committed to the treaties for life; all tools are on the table. According to the text of the NPT, whenever a country's supreme security interests are jeopardized, it can withdraw from it with a 90-day notice. After two direct attacks on nuclear facilities, our supreme security interests have been officially compromised and considering withdrawing from the NPT is logical and legitimate. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv]
YESIran Semi-Official SNN95%match16¢-19%
Gharibabadi: According to the explicit text of the NPT, if our supreme security interests are jeopardized and we have a 90-day deadline, we can withdraw immediately Deputy Foreign Minister for Legal Affairs: The opposing parties should not think that the Islamic Republic of Iran will remain committed to the treaties for life; all tools are on the table. According to the text of the NPT, whenever a country's supreme security interests are jeopardized, it can withdraw from it with a 90-day notice. After two direct attacks on nuclear facilities, our supreme security interests have been officially compromised and considering withdrawing from the NPT is logical and legitimate. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv [in reply to: Gharibabadi: There are currently no commitments, declarations or inspections by the Agency in Iran and we are behaving like a non-member of the NPT Deputy Legal Minister of Foreign Affairs: Currently, the situation we are in is practically as if we have no commitments under the NPT. All access, inspections and submission of declarations to the International Atomic Energy Agency have been cut off. Get the latest news: Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv]
NOiranintlbrk92%match84¢+4%
Baqaei said the Islamic Republic remains a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, NPT, adding: "We both recognize our obligations in this regard and express our expectations seriously."
YESiranintlbrk92%match14¢-7%
Yousefi, member of the parliamentary presidium: What is the justification for remaining in the NPT? We must make a decision today and withdraw from the NPT.
YESiranintlbrk99%match11¢+18%
Fars News Agency quoted a spokesman for the National Security Commission of the Parliament as saying: The plan to withdraw from the NPT is ready for consideration in the Parliament, and if the Islamic Republic faces an existential threat, changing the nuclear doctrine could also be on the agenda.
YESalmayadeenlive99%match11¢+18%
Iran: Rezaei: Our other option is to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
NOalarabytv99%match93¢-6%
Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson: As long as we are a member of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, we have the right to benefit from nuclear energy.
NOtasnimnews_en99%match93¢-6%
Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson reiterated the country’s right to nuclear energy as a signatory to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), while dismissing Western demands as "unfair" and part of an "unjust campaign" against Tehran.
YESiranintlbrk99%match11¢+18%
Haji Deligani, Deputy Chairman of the Parliament's Article 90 Commission: I imagine that we will withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and with a high vote in the Parliament, there will no longer be a need to comply with international rules.
YESfaytuksnetwork99%match47¢-72%
Iran’s parliament and other bodies are urgently reviewing a potential withdrawal from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Tasnim News reported, citing a growing consensus it is no longer justified.
YEShazem_kallass99%match46¢-72%
Iranian Tasnim News Agency: Withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty does not mean a move towards acquiring nuclear weapons, but rather…
YESisraelnews2399%match34¢-62%
Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency reports that some institutions in the Islamic Republic, including parliament, are “urgently considering the withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)” amid ongoing attacks on Iran’s energy facilities.
YESiranintl_en99%match34¢-62%
Iran’s IRGC-affiliated Tasnim news agency said on Saturday that some institutions in the Islamic Republic, including parliament, were urgently reviewing a potential withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). • • According to the report, a consensus was forming that there was no justification for Iran to remain in the treaty.
YESiranintlbrk99%match34¢-62%
The Tasnim news agency, affiliated with the Revolutionary Guard Corps, wrote that some institutions in the Islamic Republic, including the Islamic Consultative Assembly, are urgently considering the issue of withdrawing from the NPT, and the conclusion is becoming certain that there is no reason to remain in this treaty.
YESIran Semi-Official Tasnim99%match34¢-62%
The issue of withdrawing from the NPT was placed on Iran's agenda. Some relevant institutions in Iran, including the Islamic Consultative Assembly, are urgently considering the issue of withdrawing from the NPT, and the conclusion in the country is becoming certain that there is no reason to remain in the NPT treaty. According to the NPT, the International Atomic Energy Agency must provide conditions to protect and support Iran's use of peaceful nuclear technology and its accessories, but when Rafael Grossi, the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, implicitly encourages the enemy to use nuclear weapons against Iranian facilities, and the American-Israeli enemy attacks Iranian facilities without any obstruction or condemnation from the International Atomic Energy Agency, there is no justification for remaining in the NPT. Withdrawing from the NPT does not mean moving towards nuclear weapons, but rather preventing the continuation of American and Israeli espionage under the guise of IAEA inspectors. @TasnimNews
YESskynewsarabia99%match34¢-62%
German Press Agency: Iranian parliament intends to discuss a proposal to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty #SocialSky #Escalation_in_the_Middle_East #Iran
YESSky News Arabia99%match34¢-62%
German Press Agency: Iranian parliament intends to discuss a proposal to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty
YESft.com99%match30¢-57%
Live: Iran weighs exit from nuclear non-proliferation treaty
YESiranintl_en99%match30¢-57%
A lawmaker said a fast-tracked bill proposing Iran’s exit from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and a shift in nuclear policy has been submitted to parliament’s legislative body. • • The proposal includes three measures: withdrawal from the NPT, repeal of a law governing Iran’s commitments under the nuclear deal, and support for a new international pact with aligned countries on developing peaceful nuclear technology, Malek Shariati said. • • The remarks come as parliament has not convened since the start of joint Israeli and US strikes on Iran, with no clarity on when sessions will resume. •
YESIran State TV99%match34¢-62%
'Time to exit': Iran MP says NPT membership failed to protect country’s nuclear sites • •
YEShazem_kallass99%match34¢-62%
Spokesperson for the National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament: Iran’s continued membership in the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons is pointless, as this treaty has not benefited us in any way. The problem was not only that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty did not protect our country from attacks by nuclear powers, but our nuclear facilities were subjected to repeated attacks, and international documents and agreements were completely ignored. We have no intention of producing a nuclear bomb, and our policy on this matter is firm and unchanging. However, the Director General of the Atomic Energy Organization's statement that the only way to destroy Iran's nuclear program is with a nuclear bomb is a dangerous provocation. The United States has withdrawn from 60 international organizations and agreements, and if we now want to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, we will most likely face surprise and opposition from the West! It's time to withdraw.
Iranian officials say they are considering withdrawing from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
YESfarsnews_agency99%match26¢-50%
The US has withdrawn from 60 international organizations and conventions, and now if we were to withdraw from the NPT, we would likely face surprise and opposition from the West! It's time to withdraw.
YESfarsnews_agency99%match26¢-50%
Iran's continued membership in the NPT is meaningless, it's time to leave Spoken of the Parliament's National Security Commission: Iran's continued membership in the NPT is meaningless, the NPT has not provided us with any benefits.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT. The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Related events