When will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC?
Open3as of
Market pricing makes December 31, 2026 the favorite at 41% across 3 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
EL SALVADOR BOUGHT MORE BITCOIN TODAY • • New SBR Balance: 7,732.37 BTC
EL SALVADOR JUST BOUGHT MORE BITCOIN • • New SBR Total: 7,712.37 BTC • Total BTC Added (7d): +8 BTC • Total BTC Added (30d): +31 BTC
El Salvador just bought more bitcoin. • • New SBR balance: 7,613.37 BTC
@gdr252 @JoshMandell6 @JSeyff Dead end thesis. They hold btc 1:1. Literally illegal for them to not.
JUST IN: El Salvador announces its strategic Bitcoin reserve has surpassed 7,600 $BTC, now holding 7,605.37 $BTC valued at approximately $512M.
FINANCE FEEDS: El Salvador's Bitcoin Holdings Exceed 7,600 BTC as Accumulation Strategy Continues
JUST IN: El Salvador bought more bitcoin
INTEL: El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings have reached 7,500 $BTC ($667 million)
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the bitcoin holding officially owned by the Republic of the El Salvador government reaches or surpasses a value of $1b at any point by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolutions source for this market will be the ARKHAM INTEL tracker (see: https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/el-salvador). Any temporary glitches or errors in the tracker will not be considered. If the tracker becomes permanently unavailable another credible source may be used. Official announcements form the government of El Salvador confirming their bitcoin holdings have reached or surpassed $1b in value will also qualify.