Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

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This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?0%

What moved the odds?

1 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

NOyna.co.kr93%match99¢+1%
Taiwan: "Chinese Military Accelerates Preparations for Invasion of Taiwan... Expected to Be Completed Between 2030 and 2035"

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.