Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?

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Market pricing makes Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? the favorite at 9%, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?9%

What moved the odds?

3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

NOdbws.io99%match84¢+8%
China offers incentives to Taiwan following opposition leader’s visit
NOcnbc.com99%match84¢+8%
China's Xi invokes 'threat' of Taiwan independence in first cross-strait opposition talks in a decade
YESfinancialjuice98%match16¢-44%
China’s President Xi: To never tolerate ‘Taiwan independence’ - CCTV

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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