Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
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Market pricing makes Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? the favorite at 12%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
7 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
China not planning to invade Taiwan in 2027, US says
U.S. assesses China not planning to invade Taiwan in 2027
China will not invade Taiwan in 2027, says US
"China does not plan to invade Taiwan in 2027," US intelligence agency annual report.
Big news- US assesses China is not currently planning to invade Taiwan in 2027
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.