Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
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Market pricing makes Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027? the favorite at 2%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
The Bitcoin Security Consortiumâ€s first focus is quantum computing. • • Large-scale quantum computers capable of threatening Bitcoin's cryptography don't exist today, and credible estimates place them years away. But preparing is a meaningful long-term priority, and one the community is already working on.
Bitcoin faces a new threat... not regulation or war, but quantum computing, which is silently approaching. A Google study says that breaking Bitcoin's encryption may be closer than expected, and older wallets are most at risk. Galaxy Digital estimates that $470 billion worth of Bitcoin could be at risk in the future. Coinbase has formed a risk committee, and Michael Saylor has launched a protection program... Will encryption hold? #Arabic_Business
Crypto Firms Are Preparing For The Quantum Era. Tomorrow's Computers Could Break Today's Encryption.. • Bitcoin's long transaction history has left a large number of public keys visible, making it a central focus in the industry's security debate.
What is this event about?
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.