Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?
Open$196Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 2% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES2¢
NO98¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
The Bitcoin Security Consortiumâ€s first focus is quantum computing. • • Large-scale quantum computers capable of threatening Bitcoin's cryptography don't exist today, and credible estimates place them years away. But preparing is a meaningful long-term priority, and one the community is already working on.
Bitcoin faces a new threat... not regulation or war, but quantum computing, which is silently approaching. A Google study says that breaking Bitcoin's encryption may be closer than expected, and older wallets are most at risk. Galaxy Digital estimates that $470 billion worth of Bitcoin could be at risk in the future. Coinbase has formed a risk committee, and Michael Saylor has launched a protection program... Will encryption hold? #Arabic_Business
Where does the news lean?
0YES3NO1neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 97%.
What would make this resolve YES?
On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.