Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?

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Market pricing makes Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? the favorite at 95%, as of .

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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

Anthropicforbes.com98%match95¢
Anthropic Overtakes SpaceX In Betting Odds For 2026’s Biggest IPO. • Anthropic is expected to make an initial public offering as soon as October, with reports indicating its valuation could range between $1 trillion and $2 trillion.
ANTHROPIC OVERTAKES SPACEX AS FAVORITE FOR LARGEST 2026 IPO ON POLYMARKET • • Anthropic: 63% • SpaceX: 37% • • The two flipped positions today. SpaceX held above 80% through early August and led as recently as this week. Total volume is $5.59M. • • Anthropic is preparing to file publicly for an IPO as soon as the end of August and expects to match or beat the size of SpaceX's listing, per Bloomberg. • • SpaceX $SPCX priced at $135 on June 11 and closed its Nasdaq debut at $160.95.
Anthropicfortune.com94%match95¢
Anthropic’s potential $2 trillion IPO could turn staff into millionaires—now the AI firm is asking candidates what they’d do if stock fell to zero
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The US IPO boom is heating up ahead of schedule; Oura and Anthropic are poised to make their debut.
Anthropicchosun.com92%match96¢-1%
“Antropics’ ‘Mega IPO’ Raises Concerns of Absorbing Stock Market Liquidity… AI Capital Competition Intensifies”
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“Antropics’ ‘Mega IPO’ Raises Concerns of Absorbing Stock Market Liquidity… AI Capital Competition Intensifies”
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The market debut of Anthropic, maker of the Claude AI models, could break the record set by SpaceX, US media reported. • Elon Musk's space firm went public in June at a value of $1.77 trillion and raised $85.7 billion in its initial public offering. •
Anthropicskynewsarabia97%match95¢
Anthropic is preparing for an unprecedented IPO, potentially surpassing SpaceX's $86.2 billion offering. Will the artificial intelligence sector witness the largest IPO in history? @elbouchari1 #Anthropic #SpaceX #Cloud #ArtificialIntelligence #EconomyPlus #SkyEconomy
AnthropicCNBC Reporter97%match97¢-2%
scoop: Anthropic IPO filing will show AI backlash as a risk factor, sources say • • Anthropic is poised to hit the public market at a time when an increasing number of Americans are loudly are opposing new data centers. That backlash is expected to be a key risk factor in Anthropic’s IPO prospectus, according to people familiar with matter. • • @CNBC :
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Anthropic IPO filing will show AI backlash as a risk factor, sources say
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Anthropic IPO filing will show AI backlash as a risk factor, sources say
Anthropicsedaily.com97%match97¢-2%
While OpenAI Stags... Antropic Emerges as a Major IPO Candidate [Global Morning Briefing]
AnthropicRussian Media97%match96¢-1%
Anthropic hopes to match or surpass SpaceX in IPO size, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the company's plans. SpaceX initially raised $75 billion in its IPO, setting a record for the size of an initial public offering. Taking into account the option to sell additional shares, the final amount reached $86.2 billion. Anthropic is preparing to publicly file documents for an IPO at the end of August. The final parameters of the offering, including its size, are still being discussed. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Anthropicft.com96%match96¢-1%
What retail investors need to know before jumping into Anthropic’s IPO
Anthropicchosun.com97%match96¢-1%
Anthropic Considers ‘Largest IPO Ever’ Surpassing SpaceX… Valuation Overtakes OpenAI
Anthropicmoney.udn.com94%match96¢-1%
Anthropic challenges the record for the largest IPO, potentially matching or surpassing SpaceX.
Anthropicmoney.udn.com97%match96¢-1%
Anthropic aims for the world's largest IPO, with filing as early as August. A new system is also being launched, and there's a major policy shift regarding corporate data.
Anthropicalarabiya_bn97%match96¢-1%
Anthropic expects to match or surpass SpaceX's record-breaking IPO, according to Bloomberg. SpaceX raised $85.7 billion in its initial public offering last June. The cloud platform developer is currently conducting a financial feasibility study in preparation for a potentially massive IPO at the end of this month. Anthropic raised $65 billion in funding in May at a valuation of $965 billion and has seen increasing demand for its products recently. #Arabic_Business
Anthropicstockmktnewz96%match96¢-1%
Anthropic expects to match or beat the size of SpaceX’s record-setting initial public offering - Bloomberg
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Anthropic Expects to Match or Beat the Size of SpaceX’s Record-Setting IPO - Bloomberg News
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Reports Anthropic Said To Prepare IPO Filing As Soon As End-August • - Expects To Match SpaceX's Record IPO Size Or Top It • - Recent Investor Briefings Led By CFO Rao
OpenAIchosun.com97%match5¢
OpenAI plans IPO next year… Allows Antropic to overtake it in revenue for the first time
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Anthropique rumored to have a $2 trillion IPO: A test case for an AI economy that could "surpass SpaceX"
OpenAIbiz.chosun.com97%match5¢
OpenAI plans IPO next year… Allows Antropic to overtake it in revenue for the first time
OpenAIetnews.com96%match5¢
OpenAI CFO: “Pushing for IPO next year… No problem even if later than Antropics”
ANTHROPIC ODDS TO IPO BEFORE OPENAI RISE TO 95% ON POLYMARKET • • The contract is up 9 points, climbing steadily from around 85% since August 13. • • A separate contract puts the odds of an Anthropic IPO by October 31 at 74%, and Anthropic at 44% to be the largest IPO by market cap in 2026. Both companies are privately held.
Anthropicdbws.io93%match90¢+6%
Anthropic prepares supervoting power for founders ahead of IPO, The Information reports
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Anthropic Revenue Run Rate Hits $65 Billion. The Claude Maker Is Outpacing OpenAI Ahead of Its IPO.. • Anthropic filed its prospectus with the SEC in June and has since begun preliminary meetings with potential investors.
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Anthropic is expected to exceed its target of approximately $10 billion in credit facilities as the artificial intelligence company prepares for its anticipated initial public offering. The proposed expansion of the revolving credit facility by the Cloud chat application owner is attracting interest from several banks seeking to enhance their chances of participating in the offering, according to Bloomberg. #Arabic_Business
AnthropicWalter Bloomberg94%match90¢+6%
ANTHROPIC LINES UP $10B+ CREDIT AHEAD OF IPO • • Anthropic’s revolving credit facility is set to exceed $10 billion as banks compete for roles in the AI giant’s highly anticipated IPO. • • The Claude maker is reportedly working with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan on the listing, which could come as soon as this fall. • • Anthropic’s annualized revenue run rate reportedly reached $65 billion in July, strengthening its case for a blockbuster Wall Street debut.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. This market will resolve 50-50 if: - Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET; - Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or - By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

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