Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Open$423Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 95% chance that this market resolves OpenAI, as of .
OpenAI95¢
Anthropic5¢
as of
What moved the odds?
25 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Anthropic's IPO prospectus reveals legal risks; liability remains unclear when AI-assisted agents cause problems.
Anthropic's IPO prospectus warns of government policy risks, potentially impacting its global operations.
OpenAIReuters92%match97¢-2%
Exclusive - Anthropic Warns That Government Attitudes Toward the Company, Its Technology Could Have Implications for Its Business - IPO Prospectus Seen by Reuters
Anthropic's truly crazy warning: It just added the phrase "existential risk to humanity" to its initial public offering (IPO) documents. The document states that advanced artificial intelligence could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity," and could even develop behaviors like resistance to shutdown, manipulation of information, or even something akin to blackmail. This is not a blog. This is an official warning to potential investors.
Anthropic's truly crazy warning: It just added the phrase "existential risk to humanity" to its initial public offering (IPO) documents. The document states that advanced artificial intelligence could pose "catastrophic or existential risks to humanity," and could even develop behaviors like resistance to shutdown, manipulation of information, or even something akin to blackmail. This is not a blog. This is an official warning to potential investors.
Live: Anthropic prospectus flags legal dangers of rogue AI agents before IPO
EXCLUSIVE-Anthropic IPO prospectus lays bare deep dependence on Big Tech partners
Anthropic's IPO prospectus details steep losses, existential risks
QUOTES-Anthropic’s IPO prospectus sharpens focus on AI valuations
Anthropic warned investors that AI could pose an "existential threat to humanity," Reuters reported after reviewing the company's IPO prospectus. This is an unprecedented warning from a company seeking to profit from the same technology, the agency notes. The prospectus states that models could resist shutting down, "hide or manipulate information," and exhibit behavior "resembling blackmail." Risk factors take up 80 of the 261 pages of the prospectus—almost twice as many as the 48 pages devoted to the business.
Unsplash
Anthropic warns of ‘catastrophic’ AI risks in its own IPO filing
Anthropic ‘warns of existential AI risks to humanity’ in IPO document
Anthropic’s IPO prospectus shows sweeping AI vision and surging costs
Anthropic warns investors of AI’s 'existential risk to humanity' in IPO prospectus, reports say
"Catastrophic or existential risks for humanity": in its IPO prospectus, Anthropic issues this extraordinary warning to its future shareholders.
"Catastrophic or existential risks for humanity": in its IPO prospectus, Anthropic issues this extraordinary warning to its future shareholders.
Live: Introduction: Anthropic warns AI may pose 'existential risks to humanity' in IPO filing
Artificial intelligence: Anthropic plans trillion-dollar IPO – despite eight billion dollar loss
Anthropic aims to surpass $100 billion in annual revenue and is scrambling for a November IPO; OpenAI still faces a significant five-year cash shortfall.
Anthropic Moves Ahead With I.P.O. Plans Amid A.I. Safety Debate
Anthropic's mammoth IPO uncertain after founder's surprise AI safety call
OpenAIReuters93%match95¢
Anthropic Expects to Match or Beat the Size of SpaceX’s Record-Setting IPO - Bloomberg News
Looks like we are now roughly 2 months away from the Anthropic IPO • • There is now a 74% chance that Anthropic goes public via an IPO before the end of October
Anthropic IPO 2026: Plans September or Early October Listing Amid $965 Billion Valuation Talks. • Introduction Anthropic, the AI lab behind the Claude models, is holding pre-IPO investor meetings while targeting a public listi
Anthropic is seeking to hold meetings with investors ahead of its potentially massive initial public offering (IPO), according to Bloomberg, as the company prepares to join the wave of AI-driven IPOs. The banks leading the offering are arranging meetings between investors and Anthropic, the owner of the Cloud app, in the coming weeks. The company is collaborating with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase on its IPO, which could take place as early as October. The company was valued at $965 billion after a funding round in May, making it one of the world's largest private companies, surpassing OpenAI for the first time. #Arabic_Business
Where does the news lean?
115OpenAI5Anthropic26neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
What would make this resolve OpenAI?
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.