Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
Open$326Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 95% chance that this market resolves OpenAI, as of .
OpenAI95¢
Anthropic5¢
as of
What moved the odds?
20 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
ANTHROPIC OVERTAKES SPACEX AS FAVORITE FOR LARGEST 2026 IPO ON POLYMARKET • • Anthropic: 63% • SpaceX: 37% • • The two flipped positions today. SpaceX held above 80% through early August and led as recently as this week. Total volume is $5.59M. • • Anthropic is preparing to file publicly for an IPO as soon as the end of August and expects to match or beat the size of SpaceX's listing, per Bloomberg. • • SpaceX $SPCX priced at $135 on June 11 and closed its Nasdaq debut at $160.95.
The US IPO boom is heating up ahead of schedule; Oura and Anthropic are poised to make their debut.
scoop: Anthropic IPO filing will show AI backlash as a risk factor, sources say • • Anthropic is poised to hit the public market at a time when an increasing number of Americans are loudly are opposing new data centers. That backlash is expected to be a key risk factor in Anthropic’s IPO prospectus, according to people familiar with matter. • • @CNBC :
Anthropic IPO filing will show AI backlash as a risk factor, sources say
Anthropic IPO filing will show AI backlash as a risk factor, sources say
Anthropic hopes to match or surpass SpaceX in IPO size, Bloomberg reported, citing sources familiar with the company's plans. SpaceX initially raised $75 billion in its IPO, setting a record for the size of an initial public offering. Taking into account the option to sell additional shares, the final amount reached $86.2 billion. Anthropic is preparing to publicly file documents for an IPO at the end of August. The final parameters of the offering, including its size, are still being discussed. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android
Anthropic challenges the record for the largest IPO, potentially matching or surpassing SpaceX.
Anthropic aims for the world's largest IPO, with filing as early as August. A new system is also being launched, and there's a major policy shift regarding corporate data.
Anthropic expects to match or surpass SpaceX's record-breaking IPO, according to Bloomberg. SpaceX raised $85.7 billion in its initial public offering last June. The cloud platform developer is currently conducting a financial feasibility study in preparation for a potentially massive IPO at the end of this month. Anthropic raised $65 billion in funding in May at a valuation of $965 billion and has seen increasing demand for its products recently. #Arabic_Business
Anthropic expects to match or beat the size of SpaceX’s record-setting initial public offering - Bloomberg
OpenAIReuters93%match95¢
Anthropic Expects to Match or Beat the Size of SpaceX’s Record-Setting IPO - Bloomberg News
Reports Anthropic Said To Prepare IPO Filing As Soon As End-August • - Expects To Match SpaceX's Record IPO Size Or Top It • - Recent Investor Briefings Led By CFO Rao
OpenAI plans IPO next year… Allows Antropic to overtake it in revenue for the first time
OpenAI plans IPO next year… Allows Antropic to overtake it in revenue for the first time
ANTHROPIC ODDS TO IPO BEFORE OPENAI RISE TO 95% ON POLYMARKET • • The contract is up 9 points, climbing steadily from around 85% since August 13. • • A separate contract puts the odds of an Anthropic IPO by October 31 at 74%, and Anthropic at 44% to be the largest IPO by market cap in 2026. Both companies are privately held.
Anthropic prepares supervoting power for founders ahead of IPO, The Information reports
Anthropic Revenue Run Rate Hits $65 Billion. The Claude Maker Is Outpacing OpenAI Ahead of Its IPO.. • Anthropic filed its prospectus with the SEC in June and has since begun preliminary meetings with potential investors.
Looks like we are now roughly 2 months away from the Anthropic IPO • • There is now a 74% chance that Anthropic goes public via an IPO before the end of October
Anthropic IPO 2026: Plans September or Early October Listing Amid $965 Billion Valuation Talks. • Introduction Anthropic, the AI lab behind the Claude models, is holding pre-IPO investor meetings while targeting a public listi
Anthropic is seeking to hold meetings with investors ahead of its potentially massive initial public offering (IPO), according to Bloomberg, as the company prepares to join the wave of AI-driven IPOs. The banks leading the offering are arranging meetings between investors and Anthropic, the owner of the Cloud app, in the coming weeks. The company is collaborating with Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan Chase on its IPO, which could take place as early as October. The company was valued at $965 billion after a funding round in May, making it one of the world's largest private companies, surpassing OpenAI for the first time. #Arabic_Business
Where does the news lean?
43OpenAI3Anthropic13neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 96%.
What would make this resolve OpenAI?
This market will resolve to "Anthropic" if Anthropic completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before Anthropic completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both companies complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.