Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
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Market pricing makes Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? the favorite at 38%, as of .
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Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi told Al Arabiya: "We will not leave OPEC and we seek a fair and equitable share of production... and we seek an economic partnership with Saudi Arabia as it represents a strategic depth for Iraq."
The Prime Minister: Iraq is one of the founding countries of OPEC and will not leave it, but we seek a fair and equitable share of production.
Iraqi Prime Minister to Al Arabiya: We will not leave OPEC, but we seek a fair share
These two countries are the most likely to leave OPEC’s orbit next
The United Arab Emirates (UAE), OPEC's third-largest oil producer, is leaving the alliance. This decision is explained by the need to increase production, which is hampered by OPEC quotas, and is possibly a consequence of agreements with the United States. The move could push other OPEC members to leave the group and trigger a period of low oil prices, which creates risks for Russia, experts warn. Subscribe to Kommersant on Telegram | MAX | Leave boosts
The UAE has decided to leave OPEC to more quickly overcome the consequences of the conflict in the Middle East, but this decision could trigger a chain reaction of market reformulation and the erosion of alliances, experts told Radio RBC. According to Dmitry Alexandrov, head of analytical research at AVI Capital, the UAE's decision is understandable, as "they suffered perhaps the most" from the US-Iran war. They were forced to leave OPEC in order to "recover as quickly as possible." Oleg Abelev, head of the analytical department of the investment company Rikom-Trust, responded similarly to the UAE's decision. "Any cartel agreements are based on these tacit agreements between the parties within the cartel," he said. The withdrawal of the United Arab Emirates "will weaken OPEC and OPEC+ because it undermines some of the discipline within the cartel." RBC Channel in "Max" RBC app for iOS and Android
What is this event about?
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.