Will another country leave OPEC in 2026?
Open$171Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 38% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES38¢
NO63¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi told Al Arabiya: "We will not leave OPEC and we seek a fair and equitable share of production... and we seek an economic partnership with Saudi Arabia as it represents a strategic depth for Iraq."
The Prime Minister: Iraq is one of the founding countries of OPEC and will not leave it, but we seek a fair and equitable share of production.
Iraqi Prime Minister to Al Arabiya: We will not leave OPEC, but we seek a fair share
Where does the news lean?
3YES3NO17neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.