Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?

OpenOutcomes1as of

Market pricing makes Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? the favorite at 19%, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?19%

What moved the odds?

10 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

NOwelt.de91%match74¢+9%
Saxony-Anhalt: All information about the election - polls, minority scenario
NOwelt.de93%match75¢+8%
Survey: Majority of Germans reject key AfD demands in Saxony-Anhalt
NObild.de92%match68¢+19%
Poll in Saxony-Anhalt: AfD far ahead, but new hope for two other parties
NOwelt.de94%match72¢+13%
State election 2026: Polls, minority scenario – What you need to know about the election in Saxony-Anhalt
YEShandelsblatt.com94%match32¢-41%
Saxony-Anhalt: CDU mayor hopes for AfD single-party government
NOwelt.de91%match69¢+17%
State election in Saxony-Anhalt: "Could Chinese Walls be built?" – the other parties' plans against an AfD government
YEShandelsblatt.com93%match33¢-42%
Landtagswahl: AfD in Sachsen-Anhalt laut Umfrage bei 42 Prozent – BSW legt zu
NOwelt.de91%match75¢+8%
Saxony-Anhalt: "The AfD does not have a majority," says Minister-President Sven Schulze
NOfaz.net92%match60¢+35%
Saxony-Anhalt: Will the Greens spoil the AfD's march?
NOwelt.de92%match59¢+37%
Against AfD majority – campaign calls for tactical voting in Saxony-Anhalt

What is this event about?

Parliamentary elections to elect the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt are scheduled to take place on September 6, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the party Alternative for Germany (AfD) wins an absolute majority of seats in the state parliament of Sachsen-Anhalt (Landtag) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If voting in the Sachsen-Anhalt election for the Landtag does not occur or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published on the official website of the Landtag of Sachsen-Anhalt (https://www.landtag.sachsen-anhalt.de/).

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