Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

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Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?100%

What moved the odds?

4 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

YESThe Wall Street Journal98%match62¢+61%
Alberta is poised to hold a referendum on seceding from Canada later this year, and supporters of independence credit Trump’s disruptive energy for adding fuel to their movement
YESPolymarket99%match39¢+156%
[Replying to @unusual_whales] @unusual_whales 39% chance a referendum is scheduled this year. > Bessent: "Albertans are very independent people. There's a rumor they may have a referendum on whether they want to stay in Canada or not."
YESunusual_whales99%match39¢+156%
Bessent: "Albertans are very independent people. There's a rumor they may have a referendum on whether they want to stay in Canada or not."
YESSam Reynolds98%match44¢+127%
Ignore any political preference about Alberta for a moment. With the referendum officially approved, this is a free money market: [Quoting @MPelletierCIO] > Looks like there will be a separation referendum in Alberta in 2026. As a risk manager, it is important to weigh tail risk events like this. Alberta’s separation would create a fiscal shock of historic proportions for the country. The province is by far the biggest net…

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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