Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?
ResolvedOutcome: Yes$923Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved Yes. Final market pricing put YES at 100%, as of .
YES100¢
NO0¢
as of
What moved the odds?
2 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
YESThe Wall Street Journal98%match62¢+61%
Alberta is poised to hold a referendum on seceding from Canada later this year, and supporters of independence credit Trump’s disruptive energy for adding fuel to their movement
YESSam Reynolds98%match44¢+127%
Ignore any political preference about Alberta for a moment. With the referendum officially approved, this is a free money market: [Quoting @MPelletierCIO]
> Looks like there will be a separation referendum in Alberta in 2026. As a risk manager, it is important to weigh tail risk events like this. Alberta’s separation would create a fiscal shock of historic proportions for the country. The province is by far the biggest net…
Where does the news lean?
4YES0NO0neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 98%.
How did this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.