Who will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General?
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This hub tracks 11 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Dan Sullivan100%
John Curtis100%
Rand Paul100%
John Cornyn100%
Bill Cassidy100%
Thom Tillis100%
Darline Graham100%
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Republican Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana announced Friday that he will support Todd Blanche's nomination for attorney general, clearing the way for him to lead the Justice Department in a permanent capacity.
The 11th hour announcement by Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-FL) that he'll be supporting Todd Blanche's confirmation is another indicator that the Senate is surrendering its powers to Trump, according to @KatiePhang
Live: Sen. Lisa Murkowski says it was not an easy decision to vote against Blanche, cites concerns over 'anti-weaponization' fund
BREAKING: Sen. Bill Cassidy announces he will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General, delivering a key vote needed to clear the way for President Trump's nominee. • • "This is not a referendum on President Trump. It is a decision regarding Mr. Blanche in very specific circumstances, all considered, I will vote for Mr. Blanche.” • • “I'll be criticized for this vote. What's new?"
Sen. Bill Cassidy says he’ll vote for Todd Blanche, likely securing AG confirmation
Live: Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican of Louisiana, said on the Senate floor that he would support Todd Blanche’s nomination as attorney general, making it more likely that Blanche will be confirmed by the Senate.
NEWS: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) says he’ll vote YES on Todd Blanche’s nomination to be permanent attorney general. • • “All considered, I will vote for Mr. Blanche. I'll be criticized for this vote. What's new?” Cassidy said in his floor speech. • • With that, Blanche has the votes.
BREAKING: Republican Sen Bill Cassidy says he will vote to confirm Todd Blanche for attorney general, potentially saving Trump nominee
Sen. Bill Cassidy announces he will vote to confirm Todd Blanche as attorney general. • • Said he spoke to former Attorney General Bill Barr and U.S. attorneys from Louisiana before he made his decision.
WASHINGTON (AP) — GOP Sen. Cassidy says he'll support Todd Blanche for attorney general, likely paving the way for confirmation.
Sen. Bill CASSIDY, speaking on the Senate floor, says he WILL support Blanche for AG in a win for Trump here. Blanche's chances are much higher now to be confirmed. • • "I will be criticized for this decision. What's new?"
This is quite something • • Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) is arguing that Todd Blanche will have more leverage against Trump after he's Senate confirmed • • That's Cassidy's thesis • • Make of it what you want
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) announces he will vote YES on Blanche. • • “All considered, I will vote for Mr. Blanche,” Cassidy said, explaining his conversations with former Attorney General Bill Barr and U.S. attorneys from Louisiana helped persuade him.
BREAKING NEWS: Sen. Bill Cassidy says on the Senate floor that he will vote YES on Todd Blanche's AG nomination • • This means Blanche should have the votes to be confirmed before August recess, a big win for WH & DOJ
BILL CASSIDY: "I WILL VOTE FOR MR. BLANCHE."
BREAKING: • • Sen. Bill Cassidy is a YES on Todd Blanche — all but assuring Trump's former personal attorney will become the next U.S. Attorney General.
NEWS: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) says on the Senate Floor he *WILL VOTE TO CONFIRM* Todd Blanche as Attorney General. • • Blanche now has the support needed to be confirmed.
Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., says he will vote YES to confirm Todd Blanche for Attorney General. • • Huge decision here. He might be the deciding vote.
#BREAKING: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) announces he’ll vote YES on Todd Blanche’s nomination for Attorney General
.@BillCassidy is a yes on Todd Blanche for attorney general, a major win for Trump. • • Cassidy was the swing vote with Collins & Murkowski voting no, and McConnell out. • • Former AG Bill Barr was a key player in getting Cassidy to yes
Bill Cassidy: "I will vote for Mr. Blanche."
Live: Sen. Bill Cassidy announces he'll vote to confirm Todd Blanche for attorney general
BREAKING: Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-LA) said he will vote YES on Todd Blanche’s nomination. This means Blanche has enough votes to be confirmed as the next Attorney General.
NEW — Louisiana Republican Bill Cassidy says he will WILL VOTE YES on Todd Blanche’s nomination for Attorney General • • Trump helped defeat Cassidy in a primary this year. • • Comes after both Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins said they would oppose Blanche.
NEW — Louisiana Republican Bill Cassidy says he will WILL VOTE YES on Todd Blanche’s nomination for Attorney General • • Trump helped defeat Cassidy in a primary this year. • • Comes after both Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins said they would oppose Blanche.
NEW — Louisiana Republican Bill Cassidy says he will WILL VOTE YES on Todd Blanche’s nomination for Attorney General • • Trump helped defeat Cassidy in a primary this year. • • Comes after both Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins said they would oppose Blanche.
Live: Sen. Lisa Murkowski says she’ll oppose Todd Blanche’s attorney general nomination
ALERT: Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is a "NO" vote for Todd Blanche • • Another defeat for Team Trump at the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool • • Debate announcement in yet another emerging US Senate race • • DAY AHEAD editorial note is stocked w/ new reporting • •
Live: GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski comes out against Todd Blanche for attorney general, putting nomination in jeopardy
Barring a surprise return by Mitch McConnell, the fate of Todd Blanche’s nomination to be Donald Trump’s attorney general comes down to a person who effectively voted to bar Donald Trump from public office:
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Todd Blanche to be United States Attorney General. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions.
If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”.
If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
No attempts by a legislator to change their vote after the vote has been closed shall be considered for this market.
The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.