Who will Trump publicly insult by September 30?
Open40as of
This hub tracks 40 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Tucker Carlson100%
Joe Biden100%
Barack Obama100%
Jerome Powell100%
Nicolás Maduro100%
Kaitlan Collins100%
James Talarico100%
Abdul El-Sayed100%
All further outcomes (10 more):
Kathy Hochul · Ilhan Omar · Letitia James · J.B. Pritzker · Jon Ossoff · Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez · Mark Carney · Hillary Clinton · Elizabeth Warren · Adam Schiff
What moved the odds?
15 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Live: Donald Trump has high praise for Andy Burnham after tricky first meeting
NEW • • My analysis from New York City on Andy Burnham's first face to face meeting with Donald Trump • • Phew! Given the risk of any diplomacy involving Donald Trump, Number 10 will be delighted that the first face to face meeting between Andy Burnham and the US President has passed off without incident. ... • • ... but as so often with Mr Trump, things can change rapidly. •
[UPDATE] Trump praises new British PM Andy Burnham but slams UK deal on Indian Ocean islands (first reported at 2026-09-22T08:00:45Z)
Donald Trump says it’s “an honour” to be with Andy Burnham and praises his “great election win” in Makerfield. “I think he’s going to be a great prime minister… we’re with you all the way.” • • US president says PM “gets it” and that he’s a man he can do business with. • • He adds: “I think he's a natural businessperson. We have had a lot of discussions. He gets it. He understands what he has to do”.
Donald Trump says Andy Burnham is a man he can do business with • • 'I think he's a natural businessperson. We have had a lot of discussions. He gets it. He understands what he has to do'
Live: Donald Trump says he feels he can do business with Andy Burnham
NEW: Donald Trump says Andy Burnham is a "natural businessperson". He adds: "He gets it". • • Their first meeting on-going now at the UN
Donald Trump says Andy Burnham is a "natural businessman" at the end of their bilat
Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani once again displayed their good relationship in New York and promised "a new level of dialogue"
Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani once again displayed their good understanding in New York and promised "a new level of dialogue"
"He has the potential to be a great mayor": the good relationship continues between Donald Trump and Zohran Mamdani
Trump will travel to the airport on Thursday to greet Chinese President Xi Jinping, whom he will host at the White House with a state ceremony. We will witness an unusual gesture from Trump, one he has never made to any leader before, and one he himself did not receive from Xi during his visit to Beijing.
Donald Trump reveals real opinion of Andy Burnham and his 'unfortunate' flaw
Donald Trump complained that he never received any sympathy from journalist Tucker Carlson, "despite the fact that I did a lot for him." "I would say that Tucker Carlson never really liked me. Although in some ways, I did a lot for him," the American leader said on WABC. At the same time, the president called their relationship fickle, and Carlson an extremely unstable person who changes his position depending on the situation. More news from IZ RU in MAX
Live: Trump attacks Abdul El-Sayed's mother and sister
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults the listed individual between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A public statement is any written, verbal, or recorded statement which is either made in a public setting, published by the speaker, or on the record to media, and the direct language of which is made publicly available within the specified timeframe. Pre-recorded public statements will count for the date (ET) that they are made publicly available. Statements made in private that are subsequently leaked will not qualify, even if credibly reported. Narrations and paraphrasings do not qualify.
Images and videos posted on verified social media accounts will only qualify if they contain insulting language clearly directed at the individual, whether within the content itself or in an accompanying caption. Language within the content of a video will only qualify if Donald Trump is clearly portrayed as saying it. Insulting language within the content of a video said by anyone other than Donald Trump or a portrayal thereof will not qualify.
A quote post will qualify if added language independently qualifies as an insult, or endorses insulting language directed at the individual within the quoted post; a repost of another account's post will not qualify.
A public statement qualifies as an insult if it mocks, degrades, or disparages the individual either personally or professionally. This includes calling the individual a clearly insulting trait (e.g., weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure), using an insulting nickname (e.g., Crooked Hillary), using other clearly derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a clearly derogatory manner (e.g., “He isn’t smart”, “He has no judgment”). Disparaging the individual in their professional capacity will qualify (e.g., "He is a disaster candidate," "He is terrible at his job"); however, negative comments directed at the individual's specific actions, policies, or decisions will not qualify (e.g., "He has bad policies," "He is wrong about healthcare").
A statement made in direct reference to the individual will qualify even if they are not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
The resolution sources will be public statements made by Donald Trump and a consensus of credible reporting.