Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
Resolved27as of
This hub tracks 27 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
Nicolás Maduro100%
Kaitlan Collins100%
Joe Biden100%
Tucker Carlson100%
Jimmy Kimmel100%
Barack Obama100%
What moved the odds?
9 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
Trump: Netanyahu will not be arrested in the US Donald Trump announced that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested in any way if he travels to the United States. These statements came after New York Mayor Zahran Mamdani said he was still considering Netanyahu's arrest. isna.ir/xdWLwC
@isna94
President Donald Trump said Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “will not be arrested” when he visits New York in September, pushing back on a suggestion by Mayor Zohran Mamdani that such an arrest could happen.
Live: Donald Trump has said Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, “will not be arrested” if he visits the US. His comments came days after Zohran Mamdani, t
Donald Trump said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested while in the United States. Earlier, New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani announced consultations with city lawyers on the possibility of detaining Benjamin Netanyahu if he arrives at the UN General Assembly. The discussion was based on the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant issued against Netanyahu in November 2024. The United States is not a party to the Rome Statute and does not recognize the ICC's jurisdiction over US and Israeli citizens. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | in Telegram [in reply to: Benjamin Netanyahu will arrive in the United States on July 18, Reuters reports. The official reason for the visit will likely be the funeral of Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, Ynet notes. Subscribe to Kommersant in MAX | in Telegram]
Trump: Netanyahu will never be arrested in the United States In response to reports that Israeli officials are afraid of traveling to the United States due to the possibility of arrest, Donald Trump wrote:
Benjamin Netanyahu will never be arrested in the United States of America in any way, shape, or form. He is fighting the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: “Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested in any way, shape or form while in the United States. He is at war with the Islamic Republic, a government that recently killed 52,000 innocent protesters and has killed American soldiers and others over the past 47 years.”
Trump added: “The only people who should be arrested are the people who led Iran into this unprecedented cycle of death and destruction; an issue that previous US presidents should have addressed years ago.”
New York Mayor Zahran Mamdani had previously said he was considering arresting Benjamin Netanyahu if he traveled to the city to attend the United Nations General Assembly this fall.
Donald Trump wrote on Truth Social: "Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested in any way, under any circumstances, in any form, if he is in the United States. He is fighting the Islamic Republic, a government that recently killed 52,000 innocent protesters."
President Trump says Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested while in the US. • • The comments come after New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said in an interview that he may still order his arrest.
TRUMP SAYS NETANYAHU WILL NOT BE ARRESTED IN U.S. • • President Donald Trump said Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will not be arrested while visiting the United States. Trump praised Netanyahu’s campaign against Iran and blamed Iran’s leadership for decades of violence, arguing they—not Netanyahu—should be held accountable.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks the listed individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.
A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject.
Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
The resolution source for this market will be public statements from Donald Trump.