Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
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Market pricing makes Juan Reyes Mejía González the favorite at 72% across 8 tracked outcomes, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
10 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
One of world’s most wanted cartel leaders captured
One of world’s most wanted cartel leaders captured
Family members of Sinaloa Cartel arrested as $10M reward offered to catch kingpin of ‘Chapitos’
Family members of Sinaloa Cartel arrested as $10M reward offered to catch kingpin of ‘Chapitos’
ICE is offering a $10 million reward for information leading to the capture of Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar. • • He and his brothers, known as the “Chapitos,” took over their father Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán’s trafficking network. • • Guzmán Salazar is a fugitive and considered armed and dangerous.
ICE is offering a $10 million reward for information leading to the capture of Sinaloa Cartel leader Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar. • • ICE says Ivan Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar and his three brothers known as the “Chapitos” inherited drug trafficking networks from their notorious father Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman Loera. • • Guzman Salazar is a fugitive and should be considered armed and dangerous. • • Any information or tips can be sent to 866-DHS-2-ICE.
MEXICAN AUTHORITIES RETURNED THE BODY OF CARTEL BOSS NEMESIO OSEGUERA, ALIAS 'EL MENCHO', TO HIS FAMILY, AG'S OFFICE SAYS
MEXICAN AUTHORITIES RETURNED THE BODY OF CARTEL BOSS NEMESIO OSEGUERA, ALIAS 'EL MENCHO', TO HIS FAMILY, AG'S OFFICE SAYS
The two-story residence with stone walls and a red-tiled roof served as a discreet hideout for the feared Mexican cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, known as 'El Mencho', who died after a military ambush in the woods behind the home in the hills of Jalisco
The two-story residence with stone walls and a red-tiled roof served as a discreet hideout for the feared Mexican cartel leader Nemesio Oseguera, known as 'El Mencho', who died after a military ambush in the woods behind the home in the hills of Jalisco
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.