US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
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Market pricing makes US x China tariff agreement by December 31? the favorite at 90%, as of .
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3 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
China and the US will extend the trade truce agreement
Will the US take a hard line ahead of the Xi-Trump meeting in September? The US plans to impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods due to "overcapacity," restoring the previous 20% tariff rate.
According to sources, the US plans to impose a 7.5% tariff on Chinese goods ahead of the September meeting between Xi Jinping and Trump, citing "overcapacity." This move would restore the overall tariff level on China to approximately 20% during Trump's second term, consistent with the trade truce ceiling previously agreed upon by Beijing. This is a new tariff on top of existing tariffs from his first term and the Biden era. In March, the Trump administration initiated overcapacity investigations against more than a dozen trading partners, including China, under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, as one of the means to replace older tariffs with more sustainable ones. US Trade Representative Greer stated that the overcapacity investigation is time-consuming due to its complexity and is unrelated to maintaining the US-China truce. The White House emphasized that any information prior to official announcements is speculative. Furthermore, in July, the US imposed a 12.5% tariff on Chinese goods citing forced labor. While China criticized this, it did not retaliate and reiterated its commitment that additional tariffs would not exceed 20%. In May, China's Ministry of Commerce issued a statement demanding that the US adhere to the tariff ceiling agreed upon in the Kuala Lumpur consultations. Currently, several U.S. states and businesses have filed lawsuits in court regarding the legality of the Section 301 tariffs, while the Trump administration insists they are legal.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count.
The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced.
Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.