US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

ResolvedOutcomes3as of

This hub tracks 3 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

December 31wam.ae95%match98¢+2%
China and the US agree on a $30 billion tariff cut
October 31wam.ae95%match97¢+3%
China and the US agree on a $30 billion tariff cut
September 30wam.ae92%match96¢+4%
China and the US agree on a $30 billion tariff cut
December 31rbc.ru93%match98¢+2%
The US and China agreed to cut tariffs by $30 billion after Xi's visit.
October 31rbc.ru93%match97¢+3%
The US and China agreed to cut tariffs by $30 billion after Xi's visit.
December 31anadoluajansi94%match98¢+2%
The US and China agreed on more favorable tariffs for $30 billion worth of goods. During Chinese President Xi's visit to the US, it was reported that the two countries agreed on recommendations for more favorable tariffs on $30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods in bilateral trade. Joint steps to be taken by the two countries on artificial intelligence were also discussed during Xi's visit. ➔ Accordingly, it was announced that the US and China agreed to initiate dialogue and establish a communication channel for accidents related to artificial intelligence technology.
October 31anadoluajansi94%match97¢+3%
The US and China agreed on more favorable tariffs for $30 billion worth of goods. During Chinese President Xi's visit to the US, it was reported that the two countries agreed on recommendations for more favorable tariffs on $30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods in bilateral trade. Joint steps to be taken by the two countries on artificial intelligence were also discussed during Xi's visit. ➔ Accordingly, it was announced that the US and China agreed to initiate dialogue and establish a communication channel for accidents related to artificial intelligence technology.
September 30anadoluajansi92%match97¢+3%
The US and China agreed on more favorable tariffs for $30 billion worth of goods. During Chinese President Xi's visit to the US, it was reported that the two countries agreed on recommendations for more favorable tariffs on $30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods in bilateral trade. Joint steps to be taken by the two countries on artificial intelligence were also discussed during Xi's visit. ➔ Accordingly, it was announced that the US and China agreed to initiate dialogue and establish a communication channel for accidents related to artificial intelligence technology.
December 31TheHill Reporter93%match98¢+2%
US, China agree to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods, set up channel for AI incidents • •
October 31TheHill Reporter93%match97¢+3%
US, China agree to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods, set up channel for AI incidents • •
December 31ynet.co.il95%match98¢+2%
US and China agree to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods
October 31ynet.co.il95%match97¢+3%
US and China agree to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods
September 30ynet.co.il93%match97¢+3%
US and China agree to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods
December 31foxnews.com92%match98¢+2%
US, China strike deal to lower tariffs on $30B in goods after Trump-Xi Washington summit
October 31foxnews.com92%match97¢+3%
US, China strike deal to lower tariffs on $30B in goods after Trump-Xi Washington summit
December 31Russian Media92%match97¢+3%
China and the United States have agreed to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods, Reuters reports. The countries also agreed to launch a dialogue on artificial intelligence. The United States and China want to create a communication channel for AI-related incidents. The next round of discussions is scheduled for November. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: The meeting between the US and Chinese leaders in Washington is ceremonial in nature, according to experts interviewed by Vedomosti. Trump treats Xi as an equal and demonstrates respect, according to Dmitry Kochegurov, a research fellow at ISCRAS. However, despite the fact that a lot of effort was invested in organizing the meeting, the main issues have not been resolved: in the trade war, there is only a truce, says Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive Economics and Seminars at the Higher School of Economics. In his opinion, this is, if not a major failure, then a very limited result. If it was not possible to agree on a position before a major event, "it means the parties have very big problems." This is traditional for many of Trump's summits, Kashin points out. "He holds them counting on his personal magnetism, that he will now decide everything 'with the main boss,' but in the end, nothing moves," the expert says. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
October 31Russian Media93%match95¢+5%
China and the United States have agreed to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods, Reuters reports. The countries also agreed to launch a dialogue on artificial intelligence. The United States and China want to create a communication channel for AI-related incidents. The next round of discussions is scheduled for November. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android [in reply to: The meeting between the US and Chinese leaders in Washington is ceremonial in nature, according to experts interviewed by Vedomosti. Trump treats Xi as an equal and demonstrates respect, according to Dmitry Kochegurov, a research fellow at ISCRAS. However, despite the fact that a lot of effort was invested in organizing the meeting, the main issues have not been resolved: in the trade war, there is only a truce, says Vasily Kashin, Director of the Center for Comprehensive Economics and Seminars at the Higher School of Economics. In his opinion, this is, if not a major failure, then a very limited result. If it was not possible to agree on a position before a major event, "it means the parties have very big problems." This is traditional for many of Trump's summits, Kashin points out. "He holds them counting on his personal magnetism, that he will now decide everything 'with the main boss,' but in the end, nothing moves," the expert says. Max | Telegram | Newsletter | iOS App | Android]
December 31fortune.com91%match97¢+3%
China and the U.S. agree to set up a new AI safety channel and vow to keep working on pledge to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods
October 31fortune.com91%match96¢+4%
China and the U.S. agree to set up a new AI safety channel and vow to keep working on pledge to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods
December 31vedomosti.ru93%match97¢+3%
Reuters: China and the US have agreed to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods.
October 31vedomosti.ru93%match96¢+4%
Reuters: China and the US have agreed to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods.
September 30vedomosti.ru92%match92¢+9%
Reuters: China and the US have agreed to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods.
December 31thehill.com94%match95¢+5%
US, China agree to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods, set up channel for AI incidents The U.S. and China agreed to lower tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods each country imports from the other and launch new talks on artificial intelligence (AI) following President Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The agreements were part of an eight-point consensus reached during Xi’s three-day state visit to Washington, D.C., which…
October 31thehill.com94%match96¢+4%
US, China agree to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods, set up channel for AI incidents The U.S. and China agreed to lower tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods each country imports from the other and launch new talks on artificial intelligence (AI) following President Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The agreements were part of an eight-point consensus reached during Xi’s three-day state visit to Washington, D.C., which…
September 30thehill.com92%match95¢+5%
US, China agree to cut tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods, set up channel for AI incidents The U.S. and China agreed to lower tariffs on $30 billion worth of goods each country imports from the other and launch new talks on artificial intelligence (AI) following President Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The agreements were part of an eight-point consensus reached during Xi’s three-day state visit to Washington, D.C., which…
December 31mainichi.jp92%match95¢+5%
China agrees to import 20 million tons of US coal; tariff breaks for both sides also to be finalized.
December 31axios92%match95¢+5%
U.S, China reach $30 billion tariff deal after Trump-Xi summit
October 31axios92%match94¢+6%
U.S, China reach $30 billion tariff deal after Trump-Xi summit
December 31axios.com92%match95¢+5%
U.S, China reach $30 billion tariff deal after Trump-Xi summit
October 31axios.com92%match94¢+6%
U.S, China reach $30 billion tariff deal after Trump-Xi summit

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and China between market creation and the listed date 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Informal and unilateral announcements that do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The publicly announced lowering of tariffs by both China and the U.S. will qualify as a mutual agreement over trade and/or tariffs if confirmed as part of a mutual agreement by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting, even if a formal agreement isn’t mutually announced. Agreements that include the United States and China as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and the People's Republic of China, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.