US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

OpenOutcomes1as of

Market pricing makes US takes Panama Canal before 2027? the favorite at 4%, as of .

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

14 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .

YESlesechos.fr93%match4¢
“Ensuring the security of the canal”: the United States asserts its control over Panama
YESalhadath99%match9¢-56%
"It was the most expensive project we ever built, and it was also the most profitable." Trump: We lost 38,000 people building the Panama Canal, then we gave it up, and now China is trying to take over the Panama Canal. We will not allow that to happen.
YESalarabiya99%match9¢-56%
"It was the most expensive project we ever built, and it was also the most profitable." Trump: We lost 38,000 people building the Panama Canal, then we gave it up, and now China is trying to take over the Panama Canal. We will not allow that to happen.
NOfoxnews99%match91¢+5%
President Trump says the U.S. never should have handed over the Panama Canal, warning that China is now trying to take control of the strategic waterway. • • "We're not going to let that happen." • • Speaking at the dedication of the Roosevelt Presidential Library, Trump criticized Panama for repeatedly raising canal transit fees while continuing to collect massive revenues and vowed the United States would not allow China to gain influence over the canal. • • "And that was not part of the script..." Trump joked after going off on the issue.
NOIranian Media99%match91¢+5%
Trump: We will not let China take over the Panama Canal The head of the terrorist state of America: China is trying to take over the Panama Canal. We will not let this happen. nournews.ir @Nournews_IR
YESKan99%match9¢-56%
Trump: "China is now trying to take over the Panama Canal, and we will not let that happen" @ishayb2003
NOIran Semi-Official Fars99%match91¢+5%
Trump: China is trying to take over the Panama Canal, but we will not let that happen. @Farsna [in reply to: Trump: The Panama and Suez Canals should be free for us In another controversial comment, the US President said: American military and commercial ships should be allowed to pass through the Panama and Suez Canals free of charge. Trump added: I asked Rubio to immediately issue an order for our ships to pass through the Panama and Suez Canals free of charge. Trump claims that the Panama and Suez Canals would not have existed without America, while the US had no role in the construction of the Suez Canal and this project was mainly carried out by Egypt, France and England. @Farsna]
NOIran Semi-Official Tasnim99%match91¢+5%
Trump: We will not let China take over the Panama Canal The head of the terrorist state of America: China is trying to take over the Panama Canal. We will not let this happen. @TasnimNews
NOiranintlbrk99%match91¢+5%
US President Donald Trump said in North Dakota: We will not let China take control of the Panama Canal
A U.S. military service member taking part in the Jungle Operations Training Course–Panama jumps in the high entry during the course’s Combat Water Survival Assessment in Colón, Panama, June 16, 2026. • • The jungle course is one of multiple U.S.-Panamanian security engagements that strengthen regional security against shared threats and ensure the protection of the Panama Canal. #SOUTHCOM @MARFORSOUTH @USArmyWHC @USEmbPAN @USAenEspanol @DeptofWar @aeronavalpanama @SPIPanama @senafrontpanama
NOafp.com99%match89¢+8%
US 'stands firmly with Panama' in dispute over ships detained by China: Rubio
NOafp.com99%match89¢+8%
ALERT: US 'stands firmly with Panama' in dispute over ships detained in China: Rubio
#SOUTHCOM Commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan and Ambassador to Panama Kevin Marino Cabrera visited the Panama Canal’s Miraflores Locks and met with Canal Administrator, Dr. Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, to discuss safety and security of the canal area. The United States is committed to partnering with Panama to ensure the enduring security of the Panama Canal. @USEmbPAN @WHAAsstSecty @USAenEspanol @MinSegPma @canaldepanama
YESfirstsquawk99%match11¢-64%
Panama says PPC and its affiliates are obstructing transition efforts and concealing key information after port contract cancellations.

What is this event about?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means. An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.

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