US takes Panama Canal before 2027?
Open$166Kas of
Odds now
The market prices a 4% chance that this market resolves YES, as of .
YES4¢
NO96¢
as of
What moved the odds?
3 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the live price as of .
President Trump says the U.S. never should have handed over the Panama Canal, warning that China is now trying to take control of the strategic waterway. • • "We're not going to let that happen." • • Speaking at the dedication of the Roosevelt Presidential Library, Trump criticized Panama for repeatedly raising canal transit fees while continuing to collect massive revenues and vowed the United States would not allow China to gain influence over the canal. • • "And that was not part of the script..." Trump joked after going off on the issue.
A U.S. military service member taking part in the Jungle Operations Training Course–Panama jumps in the high entry during the course’s Combat Water Survival Assessment in Colón, Panama, June 16, 2026. • • The jungle course is one of multiple U.S.-Panamanian security engagements that strengthen regional security against shared threats and ensure the protection of the Panama Canal. #SOUTHCOM @MARFORSOUTH @USArmyWHC @USEmbPAN @USAenEspanol @DeptofWar @aeronavalpanama @SPIPanama @senafrontpanama
#SOUTHCOM Commander Gen. Francis L. Donovan and Ambassador to Panama Kevin Marino Cabrera visited the Panama Canal’s Miraflores Locks and met with Canal Administrator, Dr. Ricaurte Vásquez Morales, to discuss safety and security of the canal area. The United States is committed to partnering with Panama to ensure the enduring security of the Panama Canal. @USEmbPAN @WHAAsstSecty @USAenEspanol @MinSegPma @canaldepanama
Where does the news lean?
5YES9NO8neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 99%.
What would make this resolve YES?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.