US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026?
Open1as of
Market pricing makes US-Saudi nuclear deal enters into force in 2026? the favorite at 10%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
30 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Senate vote on Trump-Saudi nuclear deal postponed US senators announced that the vote on the Donald Trump administration's civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia will be held after the midterm elections and no later than December 13. This vote will allow Congress to examine the implications of the transfer of US nuclear technologies to Saudi Arabia and announce its official position. @iribnews
Senate vote on Trump-Saudi nuclear deal postponed US senators announced that the vote on the Donald Trump administration's civilian nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia will be held after the midterm elections and no later than December 13. This decision was made following concerns expressed by some representatives - especially Democrats - about the risks of nuclear weapons proliferation and the possibility of an arms race in the Middle East. This vote allows Congress to examine the consequences of the transfer of US nuclear technologies to Saudi Arabia and announce its official position. Get the latest news:
Site | ETA | Yes | Rubika | Soroush Plus @snntv
US Senators Expect a Vote Before December 13 on Trump Administration’s Pact to Share Nuclear Power Technology with Saudi Arabia
New York Times: A classified U.S. intelligence assessment submitted to Congress concluded that Saudi Arabia has kept the option of developing a nuclear weapon open, without having made a decision to acquire one. This comes amid concerns that its civilian nuclear program could be exploited for military purposes in the future.
When the US government announced the deal in July, it said it would "enhance US and regional security by upholding high standards of nuclear safety, security and non-proliferation, and by strengthening the United States' competitive position in civilian nuclear technology." However, according to the Washington Post, a growing number of Democratic lawmakers are concerned that the deal could pave the way for Saudi Arabia to enrich uranium to levels close to 20 percent, raising concerns that some of the nuclear material could be diverted to military purposes.
The sobering intelligence outlook has compounded concerns from U.S. lawmakers about Trump‘s nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, which they fear could enable the development of a nuclear weapon and spark an arms race in the volatile Middle East...
American senators, including both Democrats and Republicans, have called on the Donald Trump administration to disclose details of the nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia, signed on July 22. They fear that the agreement does not explicitly prohibit Riyadh from enriching uranium or reprocessing spent nuclear fuel, which would pave the way for the acquisition of materials for nuclear weapons. The terms agreed upon by the White House with Saudi Arabia are set out in two secret "cover letters," the contents of which are unknown even to senators on relevant committees. However, even if the senators' demands are heard, the deal itself is unlikely to enter into force before 2027. Evan Vucci / AP Follow Kommersant on MAX | on Telegram
Live: Bipartisan group of US senators calls for disclosure of Saudi nuclear deal documents
2- Trump letter to the Senate on the nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia: (2/2) • • The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia strongly supports the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction and has consistently reiterated its commitment to nonproliferation. The United States and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia have fostered a close relationship on strategic trade and interdiction issues. It is a party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons and has concluded a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency. A more detailed discussion of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia’s domestic civil nuclear activities and its nuclear nonproliferation policies and practices is provided in the NPAS and its classified annex. • • I have considered the views and recommendations of the interested departments and agencies in reviewing the Agreement and, in accordance with subsection 123 b. of the Act, have determined that its performance will promote, and will not constitute an unreasonable risk to, the common defense and security. Accordingly, I have approved the Agreement and authorized its execution and urge that the Congress give it favorable consideration. • • This transmission shall constitute a submittal for purposes of both subsections 123 b. and 123 d. of the Act. My Administration is prepared to immediately begin the consultations with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and the House Foreign Affairs Committee as provided in subsection 123 b. Upon completion of the 30 days of continuous session review provided for in subsection 123 b., the 60 days of continuous session review provided for in subsection 123 d. shall commence.
1 - Trump notification letter to the Senate regarding the US Saudi nuclear deal : • • Dear Mr. President: • • I am pleased to transmit to the Congress, pursuant to subsections 123 b. and 123 d. of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended (42 U.S.C. 2153(b), (d)) (the “Act), the text of an Agreement for Cooperation Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy (the “Agreement), which was concluded with two accompanying side letters and which calls for the associated Agreement Between the Government of the United States of America and the Government of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for the Application of Additional Safeguards and Verification Measures to the United States-Saudi Arabia Agreement for Cooperation Concerning Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy. • • I am also pleased to transmit my written approval, authorization, and determination concerning the Agreement, and an unclassified Nuclear Proliferation Assessment Statement (NPAS) concerning the Agreement. In accordance with section 123 of the Act, a classified annex to the NPAS, prepared by the Secretary of State, in consultation with the Director of National Intelligence, summarizing relevant classified information, will be submitted to the Congress separately. The joint memorandum submitted to me by the Secretaries of State and Energy, as well as a letter from the Chairman of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission stating the views of the Commission, are also enclosed. • • An addendum to the NPAS containing a comprehensive analysis of the export control system of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with respect to nuclear-related matters, including interactions with countries of proliferation concern and the actual or suspected nuclear, dual-use, or missile-related transfers to such countries, pursuant to section 102A(w) of the National Security Act of 1947 (50 U.S.C. 3024(w)), is being submitted separately by the Director of National Intelligence. • • The Agreement has been negotiated in accordance with the Act and other applicable law. In my judgment, it meets all applicable statutory requirements and will advance the nonproliferation and other foreign policy interests of the United States of America. • • The Agreement contains all of the provisions required by subsection 123 a. of the Act. It provides a comprehensive framework for peaceful nuclear cooperation with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia based on a mutual commitment to nuclear nonproliferation. It would permit the transfer of material, equipment (including reactors), components, and information for peaceful nuclear purposes. It would permit the transfer of sensitive nuclear technology to support a joint enrichment and conversion study or upon written agreement of the parties but would not permit the transfer of restricted data. Any special fissionable material transferred could only be in the form of low enriched uranium, with the exception of small quantities of special fissionable material for use as samples, standards, detectors, or targets or for such other purposes as the parties may agree. • • The Agreement has a term of 30 years, although it can be terminated by either party with at least 1 year’s advance written notice to the other party. In the event of termination or expiration of the Agreement, key nonproliferation conditions and controls will continue in effect as long as any material, equipment, or components subject to the Agreement remain in the territory of the party concerned or under its jurisdiction or control anywhere, or until such time as the parties agree that such material, equipment, or components are no longer usable for any nuclear activity relevant from the point of view of safeguards……..
President Trump submitted to Congress last night the nuclear cooperation agreement between the United States and Saudi Arabia: "The agreement meets all legal requirements, promotes non-proliferation and US political interests, and allows the transfer of materials, equipment (including reactors), components, and information for peaceful nuclear purposes."
Trump’s letter to Congress on US-Saudi nuclear deal: “In my judgment, it meets all applicable statutory requirements and will advance the nonproliferation and other foreign policy interests of the United States of America”
More details from @mgordonwsj & @laurnorman in the Wall Street Journal on the US Saudi Nuclear deal: • • The text of the accord was shared with lawmakers last week along with a raft of related documents. It outlines a road map for how uranium might be enriched in the kingdom’s territory after further consultations, including at a level of nearly 20%. • • U.S. companies and their foreign supplies would have a favored place under the agreement with Saudi Arabia and would run a potential enrichment facility, squeezing out the Russians and the Chinese, U.S. officials say. • • According to the deal, U.S. and Saudi officials will carry out a “Joint Enrichment and Conversion Study” within two years to study “the economic viability” of enriching uranium and arrangements to guard against proliferation risks. • • During that study period, reactors could be sold, but enrichment would be prohibited. • • If U.S. and Saudi officials agree on the need for enrichment. American companies and their foreign suppliers would construct a facility that would enrich uranium to a level of 5%. Further study by the two sides could lead to uranium enrichment that would approach 20% • • Lawmakers who have poured over the text say there is no opportunity for Congress to challenge a decision to enrich if it is endorsed by the study. • • Blocking the agreement will be an uphill battle for Congressional critics. The Senate and House would need to adopt a joint resolution of disapproval by a two-thirds veto proof majority to stop it. Barring such a step, the accord would legally take effect after 90 legislative days.
Trump admin sends Saudi nuclear deal that includes enrichment pathway to Congress
Reuters: Trump introduces nuclear cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress
Trump admin sent over the proposed agreement with Saudi Arabia on civil nuclear energy to Congress this week, an administration official told me @thehill • • Trump's position is unchanged - the deal will only move forward if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords • <br... Trump admin sent over the proposed agreement with Saudi Arabia on civil nuclear energy to Congress this week, an administration official told me @thehill • • Trump's position is unchanged - the deal will only move forward if Saudi Arabia joins the Abraham Accords • • Confirming @WSJ
President Trump sent agreement with Saudi Arabia on civil nuclear energy to Congress, per administration official. “This Department of Energy-led document was transmitted to the Hill consistent with the Atomic Energy Act,” official says.
UPDATE: A month after President @realDonaldTrump approved the proposed 30-year US-#SaudiArabia civilian nuclear agreement, the pact has now reportedly been submitted to Congress, triggering a mandatory 90-day review, although Trump administration officials say it remains conditional on Riyadh joining the Abraham Accords. • • The deal would open the door for US civilian nuclear technology exports to the Kingdom and calls for Saudi Arabia to build AP1000 reactors, potentially worth tens of billions of dollars. • • President Trump has also said the agreement would not allow Saudi uranium enrichment, although regional sources initially suggested otherwise, as per @ArgusMedia’s understanding. #oott • •
Reuters, citing a US official: Trump still believes the nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia will only go ahead if it joins the Abraham Accords.
#IRNA_World
Trump sends Saudi nuclear deal to Congress for approval Reuters wrote that US President Donald Trump sent the 30-year nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia to Congress for review and approval, while Reuters reported that the condition for Riyadh to recognize the Zionist regime remains in place. @IRNA_1313
USA: Trump presents nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress
President Donald Trump submitted a proposed agreement with Saudi Arabia on civil nuclear energy to Congress on Monday, starting a mandatory review period for a pact that would open the kingdom to U.S. nuclear technology. • • Congress now has 90 days of continuous session to review the agreement, which would go into effect absent objection. • • Find out what the agreement would enable:
Trump sends Saudi nuclear deal to Congress for approval US President Donald #Trump sent a 30-year nuclear deal with #Saudi Arabia to Congress for approval, while Reuters reported that the condition for #Riyadh to recognize the Zionist regime remains in place.
President Trump has submitted a civil nuclear energy agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress for review, and the president is adamant that the agreement will only move forward if the kingdom joins the Abraham Accords, a US administration official told Reuters.
The Trump administration has notified Congress of its nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia; it will now undergo review.
Trump submitted civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress for review, AP sources say
Trump admin sends Saudi nuclear deal to Congress, says Abraham Accords still key
#Exclusive US President Trump has submitted a landmark nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress for consideration, but a government official said Trump has not yet abandoned his last-minute condition that Saudi Arabia must normalize relations with Israel.
The Donald Trump administration has submitted a peaceful nuclear energy agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress for consideration, Reuters reports. The agreement provides for the construction of nuclear reactors in Saudi Arabia worth tens of billions of dollars with the participation of American companies, as well as the transfer of US nuclear technology to the kingdom. Washington is ready to conclude the deal after Riyadh joins the Abraham Accords—agreements that provide for the recognition of Israel and the establishment of diplomatic relations with it. More IZ RU news in MAX
Trump has submitted civil nuclear agreement with Saudi Arabia to Congress for review, AP sources say
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the bilateral U.S.–Saudi agreement for peaceful nuclear cooperation under Section 123 of the Atomic Energy Act enters into force and becomes legally operative between the two governments between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.