U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?
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Market pricing makes U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? the favorite at 3%, as of .
What are the odds right now?
Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
8 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Venezuela's interim president: We have concluded a historic agreement with the United States that will have a major impact on our country's revival and the flow of investments to rebuild our strategic infrastructure.
Venezuela's interim president: We have reached a historic agreement with the United States that will have a major impact on our country's revival.
US-backed Venezuela talks to begin without opposition leader Machado
US President Donald Trump: Venezuela is not yet ready to hold elections... but we have made great progress, and the Delcy administration is doing a fantastic job... and major US oil companies are preparing to invest there.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Roles that could qualify for leader of Venezuela status include, but are not limited to, "head of state," "president," or other similar roles that give her primary executive authority in the territory of Venezuela.
A qualifying US statement must be direct and unqualified. Conditional, hypothetical, supportive, or implied statements do not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and Donald Trump, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.