US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?
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This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.
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Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.
What moved the odds?
27 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .
US willing to strike deal with Iran; compromises remain unclear
76% THERE IS A US X IRAN PERMANENT PEACE DEAL BY DECEMBER 31, 2026, PER POLYMARKET: ...
Will US-Iran have a permanent ceasefire deal by the end of the month? • Polymarket sees this at a 73 percent chance of occurring, with apparent positive sings today. • What do you think?w
Will US-Iran have a permanent ceasefire deal by the end of the month? • Polymarket sees this at a 73 percent chance of occurring, with apparent positive sings today. • What do you think?
US Vice President to Fox News: Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon
Iran wanted US deal badly before the talks, and after the talks, just somehow during the talks they rejected US deal. Ok. •
Iran wanted US deal badly before the talka, and after talks, just somehow during the talks they rejected US deal. Ok. •
Bezalel Foundation Trump: Iran has not agreed to give up its nuclear program, if it does not give up there will be no agreement
Live: Market still optimistic that a US-Iran deal can be reached, analysts suggest
Graham warns Iran to ‘take this deal’ ahead of US talks
Iranian negotiator says ahead of talks that delegation has "good intentions" but "we do not trust"
'No way Iran and US can reach an agreement'
Iran insists on right to enrichment, ready for confidence-building
Iran insists on right to enrichment, ready for confidence-building
IRAN PRESIDENT SAYS U.S NUCLEAR TALKS 'A STEP FORWARD
Trump: Iran looks like they want to make a deal very badly as they should.
We’re going to meet again early next week. They want to make a deal. Iran, as they should, want to make a deal
Donald Trump says a nuclear-only deal with Iran would be acceptable, stressing “no nuclear weapons” as the red line. He also said Iran is now more willing to compromise than it was a year ago.
TRUMP: NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS FOR IRAN
*TRUMP: GOING TO MEET AGAIN WITH IRAN EARLY NEXT WEEK *TRUMP: DEAL CAN BE REACHED WITH IRAN, HAVE PLENTY OF TIME
Trump: Iran desires to make a deal Trump: We have plenty of time regarding Iran deal Trump: We will meet next week regarding Iran
U.S. and Iran plan to continue nuclear talks after first round in Oman
The US and Iran begin nuclear talks in Oman - Iran's SNN
[Replying to @BRICSinfo] @BRICSinfo 33% chance a US-Iran nuclear deal is signed this year. > JUST IN: President Trump says Iran wants a deal as a large US warship fleet arrives in the Middle East.
US officials say any deal with Iran would require removal of enriched uranium, limits on long-range missiles, an end to proxy support, and a ban on independent enrichment-Axios Iran has not agreed.
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.