US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
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Market pricing makes August 31 the favorite at 99% across 6 tracked outcomes, as of .
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Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated his previous stance on the need to end the war with the United States, saying: "War is not always the solution. A knot that can be untied with the hands should not be untied with the teeth." On Wednesday, September 24, Pezeshkian once again called Iran "victorious in the battlefield," adding that this path can be crossed with "measurement and thought." @VahidHeadline @VahidOnline
Pre-market trading on August 26: US-Iran negotiations show signs of improvement, bond market turmoil eases; Taiwan stocks hold above quarterly moving average, awaiting a volume-driven upward move.
U.S.-IRAN CEASEFIRE REPORTEDLY NEARS • • The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement, with an announcement expected in the coming days, RIA Novosti reported, citing Pakistani and Iranian military sources. • • The reported deal includes free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed negotiations under the Islamabad Memorandum. • • Neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed the agreement, while Oman and Iran separately proposed a temporary mechanism to restore Strait traffic.
U.S.-IRAN CEASEFIRE REPORTEDLY NEARS • • The U.S. and Iran have reportedly reached a ceasefire agreement, with an announcement expected in the coming days, RIA Novosti reported, citing Pakistani and Iranian military sources. • • The reported deal includes free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz and renewed negotiations under the Islamabad Memorandum. • • Neither Washington nor Tehran has confirmed the agreement, while Oman and Iran separately proposed a temporary mechanism to restore Strait traffic.
The ceasefire has expired. How could the US-Iran war escalate?
The ceasefire has expired. How could the US-Iran war escalate?
What is this event about?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM Iran Standard Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.”
A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles.
The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action:
Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact;
Surface-to-air missile strikes;
Small-arms fire;
Ground incursions;
Cyber operations;
Naval gunfire and artillery fire;
Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems);
Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes;
Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed.
Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred.
“Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify.
The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.