Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
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Market pricing makes Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list? the favorite at 13%, as of .
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5 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s latest price as of .
Likud is changing direction with Ben Gvir: The attempt to bring him into a unity with Smotrich is over, and now they are moving on to a campaign aimed at reducing his mandates. According to Likud sources: "If he had responded to our requests and entered the unity process - this would not have happened." The Likud is also seeking to bring back right-wing voters who switched to Ben Gvir and to improve Smotrich's situation around the electoral threshold. Ben Gvir's entourage responds: "If Otzma Yehudit does not receive 8-9 mandates - Netanyahu will not have a right-wing government."
From the edition: Netanyahu puts on the table a proposal for Likud reserves for the Smotrich and Ben Gvir parties - Ben Gvir firmly refuses talks at this stage. Behind the scenes: Commentator-presenter Yaakov Bardugo participates in some of the consultation talks with Netanyahu in order to prevent a split in the right-wing bloc.
From the edition: Netanyahu places on the table a proposal for Likud seats for the Smotrich and Ben Gvir parties - Ben Gvir firmly refuses talks at this stage. Behind the scenes: Commentator-presenter Yaakov Bardugo participates in some of the consultation talks with Netanyahu in order to prevent a split in the right-wing bloc.
Coalition Chairman Ofir Katz of the Likud: "Ben Gvir must unite with Smotrich. What are Ben Gvir's mandates worth if they sit in the opposition? There is a team game here. It worked wonderfully last time. Can't get along? Run and say goodbye to your faction"
#YomanHatzahraim | @amirivgi
Minister Shikli of the Likud: "It's not clear to me at all that Ben Gvir is the problem, of the right-wing parties he has the most stable party. The more dangerous event is Winter's, he reminds me of the New Right in 2019. I think the right combination is Winter and Smotrich, but what is essential is that 3 parties don't run"
#Sefi_Vinir | @sefiova @yanircozin
What is this event about?
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).