Will Smotrich and Ben Gvir run on the same party list?
ResolvedOutcome: No$3Kas of
Odds now
This market has resolved No. Final market pricing put YES at 0%, as of .
YES0¢
NO100¢
as of
What moved the odds?
4 AI-matched news signals on this market, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the final price as of .
Likud and Otzma Yehudit in talks toward an agreement on Gottlieb's resignation and transition to Ben Gvir
The Union: Smotrich and Feiglin officially announced a joint run in the elections
Feiglin will be number 2 on Smotrich's list for the elections: "Technical connection"
Likud is changing direction with Ben Gvir: The attempt to bring him into a unity with Smotrich is over, and now they are moving on to a campaign aimed at reducing his mandates. According to Likud sources: "If he had responded to our requests and entered the unity process - this would not have happened." The Likud is also seeking to bring back right-wing voters who switched to Ben Gvir and to improve Smotrich's situation around the electoral threshold. Ben Gvir's entourage responds: "If Otzma Yehudit does not receive 8-9 mandates - Netanyahu will not have a right-wing government."
Where does the news lean?
1YES12NO7neutraltrailing 24h
Average match confidence across the listed signals: 94%.
How did this market resolve?
Elections for the Knesset of Israel are scheduled to be held on October 27, 2026. Final candidate lists are currently scheduled to be submitted to the Central Elections Committee of Israel by September 8, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir both appear as candidates on the same party list submitted to the Central Elections Committee to contest the 2026 Knesset elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A list on which both individuals appear will count regardless of the name under which that list runs, regardless of whether the arrangement is a technical bloc or a full merger of their parties, and regardless of the positions either individual occupies on the list.
If either individual does not appear on any party list submitted to contest the 2026 Knesset elections, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements of intent, agreements in principle, and reported negotiations will not be considered; only the candidate lists as submitted to the Central Elections Committee will be considered. Withdrawals, disqualifications, and revisions made after the submission deadline will not be considered.
If the 2026 Knesset elections do not occur, or final candidate lists are not submitted, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Tel Aviv time, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the Central Elections Committee of Israel (https://www.bechirot.gov.il).