SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO?

ResolvedOutcomes1as of

This hub tracks 1 outcomes of this event, with the news signals that move them.

What are the odds right now?

Each outcome shows its current market price — the market-implied probability it happens. Click an outcome for its full market page.

What moved the odds?

19 AI-matched news signals available across this event, newest first. Entry price is the called side when the news hit; the signed return marks it against the outcome’s final price as of .

YESft.com98%match90¢+11%
How the Supreme Court undermined one of Trump’s superpowers
YESafp99%match92¢+9%
Trump says US Supreme Court justices should be "loyal" to his executive order banning birthright citizenship, while bashing the court's recent ruling against his tariffs • •
NOjustthenews.com99%match12¢-100%
Trump slams conservative Supreme Court justices for allowing $159B in tariff refunds. • “A negative ruling on Birthright Citizenship, on top of the recent Supreme Court Tariff catastrophe, is not Economically sustainable for the United States of America!” he wrote.
YESpolitico.com99%match93¢+8%
Immigrants with temporary legal status could score slim win at Supreme Court
NOnbcnews.com99%match7¢-100%
Conservative justices appear skeptical of arguments of lawyer representing Syrian migrants in TPS case
YESnytimes.com99%match93¢+8%
Justice Sonia Sotomayor, questioning the solicitor general, says she does not see how President Trump’s claim that immigrants are “poisoning the blood of America” does not show discriminatory intent.
YESnytimes.com99%match93¢+8%
Chief Justice Roberts, in questioning the solicitor general, says the administration’s victory in the 2018 case regarding President Trump’s ban on travel from several predominantly Muslim countries does not equate to a guaranteed win for the administration here.
NOtruthsocial.com99%match7¢-100%
Trump push to restrain birthright citizenship gets ammo from unlikely source: liberal polling group:
YESdbws.io99%match93¢+8%
As US high court prepares ruling, Americans oppose ending birthright citizenship, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
YESReuters99%match93¢+8%
64% of Americans Oppose Ending Birthright Citizenship as Supreme Court Prepares to Rule, According to Reuters/Ipsos Poll
YESnytimes.com99%match97¢+3%
In Birthright Case, Trump’s Likely Loss May Not End the Fight
NOfoxnews.com99%match3¢-100%
Expert flags ‘disappointing’ questions from justices in Trump birthright citizenship case
NOfoxnews.com99%match3¢-100%
MIKE DAVIS: Sanity must be restored to birthright citizenship
YESopenoutcrier99%match97¢+3%
On birthright citizenship, Trump's restrictive immigration agenda hits a rare roadblock • •
NOfoxnews.com99%match3¢-100%
Constitution is on Trump’s side in Supreme Court birthright citizenship case
NOchinesewsj99%match4¢-100%
Prior to this hearing, some legal experts predicted a major defeat for Trump. After all, lower court judges had decisively rejected his executive order, deeming it clearly unconstitutional. One judge stated that in his 40-year judicial career, he had never seen a case with such a clear and unambiguous outcome. However, the Supreme Court justices seemed to disagree that the case was so simplistic.
YESmarketnews_feed99%match96¢+4%
*SUPREME COURT SKEPTICAL OF TRUMP'S BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP CURBS ...
YESdiegobloomberg99%match96¢+4%
*SUPREME COURT SKEPTICAL OF TRUMP'S BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP CURBS
NOchinesewsj99%match4¢-100%
In recent years, US President Trump has frequently targeted China when criticizing birthright citizenship. A few weeks ago, he wrote on Truth Social that he expected the Supreme Court "to rule in favor of China and other countries that are profiting immensely from birthright citizenship."

What is this event about?

The Supreme Court is hearing arguments on the merits of Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” (https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/protecting-the-meaning-and-value-of-american-citizenship/) which directed that children born in the United States would not automatically receive U.S. citizenship if their parents were in the country unlawfully or on certain temporary visas. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that Donald Trump’s Executive Order “Protecting the Meaning and Value of American Citizenship” may not be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the order, in whole, is unconstitutional or cannot lawfully take effect, or that the order cannot be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States. Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the order may lawfully be enforced to deny citizenship to children born in the United States will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”. If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally permits the order to deny citizenship to children born in the United States, this market will resolve to “No”. If the Executive Order is withdrawn prior to any qualifying Supreme Court ruling on the order, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Related events